The Race for the 10th
This race is a little harder to get a hande on. Armstrong was not opposed in 2003, and in 2001 he won by 6%.
Young certainly has an uphill battle. Armstrong has a $188k-4k COH lead over Young at this point. I can't see Young ever making up the difference there. Also, Armstrong is a 12 year incumbent. I don't know any reasons why people would be upset with him, so that favors Armstrong.
One other thing I can tell you is that Republicans are not nearly as optimistic here, which will make fundraising,etc. tougher for David Young. Young doesn't even have a website up yet, thats another point for Armstrong.
Young's only hope is the GOP slant of the district. Carroll has long been a Republican stronghold and Patrick County is one of only 2 localities that Kevin Triplett carried in his 9th district challange last year against Rick Boucher. Henry County usually leans more democratic and the 2 Martinsville precincts in this district are the 2 most Democratic in the city (Bush got 4% in these).
Folks, I see no way we win this seat. Money, incumbency and a lack of confidence will spell defeat for David Young. Unless Armstrong screws up big time, the dems will hold this seat.