Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Tuesday, August 16, 2005

The Perilous 26th District Race

As many of you already know, there have been a lot of questions surrounding the 26th district HOD race...
Can a democrat win in the most GOP district in VA?
Why is Matt Lohr running?
Why are other people filling in for Lohr at forums/debates?
It seems to me that, while I think Lohr will win this race, Fulk is doing everything he needs to in order to give himself a shot at winning. And also, the Lohr campaign is doing everything it can, to lose.
I think the smartest thing the Lohr campaign can do is meet people at big events (i.e. the fair) and also go DTD, talk about being a Republican, and shut the hell up about everything else. Occasional attacks during debates against Fulk may be useful, but that should be the only time they are used.
And one more thing; Ms. Berkshire, please do not call candid comment anymore unless you have your own facts straight and can remember what you have already told the press.
Thanks.

posted by GOPHokie @ 3:47 PM  

19 Comments:

  • At 8/16/2005 5:34 PM, Blogger Megan said…

    Yes, why is Matt running? I wonder if Mark could have picked a weaker canidate. I think it is pretty obvious why other people are standing in for him at debates. Speaking engagements pay better.

     

  • At 8/16/2005 6:07 PM, Blogger Megan said…

    actually matt has gone dtd and gotten yelled at and had the door slammed in his face. And that came from matt himself. Matt comes off as arrogant and smarmy...like Obenshain.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 4:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 4:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 8:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    If all Lohr can do is keep stressing he's R, not D, then he has nothing to offer us. If that's all he has to do to win, then the Valley deserves the lack of leadership he's provided so far and will likely continue to in the future.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 8:22 AM, Blogger Will Vaught said…

    I'm a moderate democrat (to most in the vally the same as Fidel Castro) who moved to the Valley a few years ago - are there any "homegrown" Valley Democrats?
    From what I understand either Fulk or Lohr will be an upgrade from the last guy. Fulk appears to be a solid canidate, and if Lohr simply runs on the fact he is a republican - he will probably still win, but this could be close, which is good for everyone.

    At the fair the other night in Rockingham, I asked someone (who identied herself as generally a republican) about what she thought of Lohr. Her response was "he's just an amibitious pretty boy"...there have been some questions about Lohr's dedication when he served on the County's Planning Commission & school board - don't know if these "rumors" have any merit?

    Regardless, this is a competitive race - and the way I see it - if Fulk can't beat Wheaterholtz (sp), who (from other sources) was an idiot, then I don't think he can beat a pretty boy either...

     

  • At 8/17/2005 8:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Overcoming partisanship in a Gubernatorial year is going to be quite a challenge. Remember, many many voters will vote for anyone with an R next to their name. The majority of the electorate is not reading "NLS" or other blogs or thinking about HOD races day in and day out. If they pay attention to anything, it's the Governor's race, and even then not until the end. What this will come down to is that both parties want this seat, but the Republicans have a LOT more resources to get it. They aren't going to throw up their hands and give up, they'll send in staff, direct mail, phone calls, etc. and the Dems. can't compete with that. Is Fulk MAYBE a more attractive candidate if you don't know him very well? Yes. Does that overcome voters in an almost 70% GOP district sending him to Richmond? Probably not.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 8:56 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Saywhat: He does need to point out what makes himself a Republican. Everyone here knows that very rarely, politicans actually promise specific things. They always say "I'll make education and healthcare better. How? Um well I dont know yet."
    Matt just needs to stress how he will continue the district with Republican beliefs and point some of them.
    And also, like it or not, its just like Alexandria. The dems can run a monkey and win up there. For the most part, thats how the valley is for GOPers.
    By the way, I'm taking bets on how long it takes for someone to say we already have one running.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 9:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    what makes him a republican? god, guns and guts? or spending, deficits?

     

  • At 8/17/2005 10:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Rockingham's Clerk of Court and Sheriff both ran against Republicans to win. Perhaps not in a Governor's race year, but still. Fulk will get many more votes than Kaine does, perhaps not enough to win. Harrisonburg is going to vote Fulk, almost certainly, again perhaps not enough to make him win.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 10:39 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I agree that Fulk will most likely win Hburg. Even so, Hburg is about 20 points weaker for the GOP than the county. So even if Fulk wins the city by 2-3 points (not 8 votes like last time), he will still have to win more than one precinct in the county (and the only precinct he won last time was Broadway by 3). Broadway precinct will be a good indicator of the election on election though. If people like Lohr in Broadway, where he missed all his school board meetings, that means no one cares and he will win. If he runs weak there, Fulk may be able to pull it off.
    I still say it won't happen though.
    And also, Farley was a Republican that got screwed out of the nomination. I don't know as much about Harper.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 10:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Harper's a good guy--a gentleman and a real public servant. Fulk isn't going to win Harrisonburg by enough votes to overcome precincts like Melrose or Fulk's Run or Timberville. Those voters are going to be out in full force for Kilgore. This is not by any measure a swing district, there are simply too many straight ticket GOP voters for Fulk to win.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 10:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    GOPhokie - Ok, we know Lohr will win, but isn't Fulk likely the better candidate?

     

  • At 8/17/2005 11:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    And doesn't that make you sick? That STUPID partisanship might rob this district of real leadership from a guy who is obviously heads above his opponent. Fulk wasn't a Democrat until a few years ago. He was an independent. The Republicans don't want a guy like him who thinks for himself.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 12:22 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Well I personally like Lohr more than Fulk, but thats because I'm a Republican. Lohr will do more things that I support than Fulk will. I do think that Fulk is a much better politician. He certainly has proved he knows how to run a campaign. I still think his district puts him at a grave disadvantage, but I think he would be able to win in alot of other places in Va. He's alot like Mark Warner. I don't like Warner, but lots of people do. He stays on message and tries to steer clear of controversal issues. Thats what it takes to win, especially when the odds are stacked against you from the word go.

     

  • At 8/17/2005 12:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Be specific about what Lohr will do in staying true to his party. Is it all about gays? Guns? What? And are those the things that really matter in running the state?

     

  • At 8/17/2005 12:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    wow gophokie, you really are drinking the right-wing kool aid..you don't like Warner? impressive...

     

  • At 8/17/2005 2:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Why is it that 'partisanship' is such a dirty word? Each party has a platform, both national and in the Commonwealth. Each party in theory has principles and beliefs. What is so wrong with aligning oneself to a party and sticking with it? While it makes sense to say "you should look at both candidates and make the better choice," It also makes sense to say "Overall, the values and platform of the ____ party are in line with my own, and even if a particular nominee is not perfect, I still prefer to support somebody from the party with which I affiliate unless he or she has done something really horrible, like David Duke."

     

  • At 8/17/2005 4:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Partisanship is awful in the Valley because its so one-party, and that party has become lazy and unresponsive to the citizens. In this election it's bad because Lohr is trying to use it to define Fulk as inferior and liberal, neither of which he is.

     

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