Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Sunday, October 30, 2005

Poll Rundown

As we near the election, polls become an even more focal point of the campaigns. Thanks to RealClearPoltics, we have a list of all the polls done for our Governor's race. Here they are:
Rasmussen: Kilgore - 44%, Kaine - 46%
Washington Post: Kilgore - 44%, Kaine - 47%
Mason-Dixon: Kilgore - 44%, Kaine - 42%
Survey USA: Kilgore - 45%, Kaine - 47%
Diageo/Hotline: Kilgore - 40%, Kaine - 41%
Poll Avg: Kilgore - 43.6%, Kaine - 44.6%

First off, from a Valley perspective, the Diageo/Hotline and Washington Post polls are both useless from their crosstabs. The Post poll has Kilgore and Kaine tied in the Valley. The Diageo poll has Kaine leading by 14 in the Valley. I think we can all agree this is not going to happen.

The Survey USA poll is also a questionable one b/c it has Kilgore leading by only 10 in the Valley and 7 in Richmond Metro, and Kaine leading by 25 in NOVA. I also tend to not agree with these crosstabs either.

That leaves the Mason-Dixon and the Rasmussen polls. The Rasmussen has no crosstabs, so we really can't dissect that poll much further. The M-D poll does not have the exact numbers but says Kilgore leads in the Valley, SWVA and Southside and Kaine leads in Hampton Roads and NOVA. It also says they are both tied in Richmond. I consider this to be how the election will turn out so I think this poll is also very credible. If you average these 2 polls you get a deadheat.
Don't forget though, I consider Rasmussen to be the most reputable, regardless of past performance of the M-D. So from the this stage, I would give a slight lean to Kaine.

One more thing, in the past Republicans have tended to be underpolled by about 5 points in statewide elections. That is not to say that it will continue, especially with the changing politics of the Commonwealth. Even so, knowing that along with the GOP 72-hour program, I think there is pretty convincing evidence to show that Kilgore will probably win this election unless more reputable polls come out showing him down 3-5 points.


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