Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Sunday, March 12, 2006

Scenario 1 - House votes for Tax Increase

Lots of people consider this to be the most likely outcome of the budget battle as a result of the 2004 tax increase followed by only 1 of 6 VCAP challengers beating the incumbents (that one Chris Craddock then lost in the general election). The widely held belief is that the House Dems will all vote as a block to support another tax increase, as well as independent Katherine Waddell. That means there are 41 of the 51 votes needed for passage. I personally think Lionel Spruill, Johnny Jonnau or some other dem (or Waddell) might not support a tax increase again so I will say there are 40 yea votes to raise taxes again. Also, independents Putney and Abbitt are from largely rural districts, so they would be expected to vote against any tax package that raises taxes for roads in NOVA and Tidewater. Who will the 11 GOPs be?

The best place to start is the "Gang of 17".
3 of those are no longer in the House (Bryant, Dilliard and Reese).
Nutter and Carrico of Southwest, Danny Marshall and Ingram of Southside have basically said they will not support another tax increase (again, largely because of more taxes for some area other than theirs).
Bill Fralin of Roanoke will probably be unlikely to support an increase under these conditions either.
The remaining 9 seem to be the more likely voters for this tax proposal because they represent the suburban areas of NOVA and Tidewater. Even so, Ed Scott, Harry Parrish, Joe May and Bobby Orrock faced primary challenges in 2005 and will likely have a harder time defending themselves if they raise taxes with a surplus. Even so, I think Ed Scott will be the only one in the group not voting for the increase (if this scenario plays out), and he represents the outer edge of NOVA in Culpeper/Madison.

Here is my best guess of 11 GOPs who could favor a tax increase this time around:
Chris Jones - led the fight last time, is from Chesapeake/Suffolk area
Joe May - represents the fast growing Leesburg area
Tom Rust - represents Fairfax/Loudoun, seems to be most the "moderate" in the caucus
Bob Tata - probably will retire after 2007, from Virginia Beach
Glenn Oder - from Newport News
Vince Callahan - from Fairfax, is safely in his seat, may retire in 2007
Harry Parrish - likely retirement in 2007, from Manassas
Bobby Orrock - from high growth areas of Spotslvania and Caroline Counties
*Tim Hugo - another "moderate" from Fairfax
*Phil Hamilton - from Newport News, the "moderate" GOP on the conference committee
*Sal Iaquinto - new delegate from Virginia Beach
(* were not a 2004 tax increase supporters)

Remember, these are the GOPs IF a tax increase is passed by the House that is largely like the one proposed now (raise taxes on gas, fees, etc; all goes to roads in NOVA and Tidewater).

UPDATE: Let me make myself clear, these are the 11 MOST LIKELY to vote for a tax increase if one were to pass the House. Right now it seems that it will be a very hard sell, but if leadership determines the need to pass one; these would be the 11 most likely to vote for it. I have not heard that any of these 11 have ever said they would plan on voting for one, they are just geographically the best bets for a vote.

13 Comments:

  • At 3/12/2006 10:34 PM, Blogger Too Moderate said…

    What is the deal with Hugo? He seems to be moving to the left. Have you heard word that he is planning to support the tax?

     
  • At 3/13/2006 12:44 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    No I have not, these names are simply the most likely to vote for the increase. This is mostly based on regionalism than anything. More likely than not, the NOVA and Tidewater Republicans will be voting yes on an increase before anyone else.

     
  • At 3/13/2006 9:58 AM, Anonymous William Jackson said…

    I would say even less than those 11 are likey to cross over. I would pull from that list Bobby Orrock, he's made several impassioned floor speeches against raising taxes. Tim Hugo is a former Board Member at VCAP, I can't see him crossing over. Phil Hamilton has been one of the staunchest defenders of the House budget on the floor as well as Callahan, who I think has too much "pride of ownership" over the House bugdet as Chairman of Appropriations. Iaquinto took McDonnell's seat, solidly conservative, and I can't see it benefiting him as a freshman to go against the will of the Speaker.

    As for Waddell, she's on the record, and he aide's have confirmed that she told the Governor personally she would not vote for a tax increase. I wouldn'tbe surprised to see Joannou break Dem ranks and vote with us on this one.

     
  • At 3/13/2006 10:40 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    WJ, I think you are right. Even so, if a tax increase passes some GOPs would have to vote for it. These are the most likely voters.
    It sounds like the House GOP is strongly united, but the House leadership may end up needing to end the battle to avoid politica fallout. Just a thought, but it could happen.

     
  • At 3/13/2006 12:59 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said…

    "Also, independents Putney and Abbitt are from largely rural districts, so they would be expected to vote against any tax package that raises taxes for roads in NOVA and Tidewater"

    Actually, the House GOP plan sends all of the money to Tidewater and NOVa, and nothing to rural areas. Nearly zippo...

    Putney and Abbitt will vote against it because they're conservative ideologues.

     
  • At 3/13/2006 1:02 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said…

    Good list of 11, by the way, although I'd take Hugo off of that list. No chance.

     
  • At 3/13/2006 1:18 PM, Anonymous tooconservative said…

    Hugo could never vote for it..

    he would NEVER vote for a tax increase.

    He was the moc at the VCAP event.

    He didnt endorse Connaughton.

    He wont vote for it.

     
  • At 3/13/2006 2:11 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Agreed on Hugo.
    That was probably a bad choice.
    However I dont know who to replace him with on the list.
    Only 10 GOPs are needed if all 40 dems plus Waddell vote anyway, so perhaps Hugo's 11th vote wouldnt be needed to start with.

     
  • At 3/13/2006 2:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    um, tooconservative... hugo did vote for a tax increase already this session... rememeber the tax increase for metro bill? sb267...

    i agree he probably wouldn't vote for the huge transportation tax hikes, but he is already on the record voting for a tax increase this year....

     
  • At 3/13/2006 7:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    No, that vote doesn't count. Too Conservative deleted it from his site when Tim called him, so it never happened.

     
  • At 3/13/2006 10:01 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I would point out that was an increase that failed.
    Its alot easier to vote for an increase that wont actually occur.

     
  • At 3/14/2006 8:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I would say Del. Harvey Morgan (R-98th District/Middle Peninsula) is another possibility. He voted for the 2004 tax increase. So far, he has spoken out against the one this year, but so have some of the others on your list for that matter. I would just include him on the hypothetical list of possibilities, even if it doesn't seem likely at the moment.

     
  • At 3/14/2006 9:31 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Thanks for the heads up. I somehow missed him.
    Morgan is also the lone GOP who didnt vote for the gas marriage amendment if I am correct, so he has shown he can buck the caucus.

     

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