Scenario 1 - House votes for Tax Increase
The best place to start is the "Gang of 17".
3 of those are no longer in the House (Bryant, Dilliard and Reese).
Nutter and Carrico of Southwest, Danny Marshall and Ingram of Southside have basically said they will not support another tax increase (again, largely because of more taxes for some area other than theirs).
Bill Fralin of Roanoke will probably be unlikely to support an increase under these conditions either.
The remaining 9 seem to be the more likely voters for this tax proposal because they represent the suburban areas of NOVA and Tidewater. Even so, Ed Scott, Harry Parrish, Joe May and Bobby Orrock faced primary challenges in 2005 and will likely have a harder time defending themselves if they raise taxes with a surplus. Even so, I think Ed Scott will be the only one in the group not voting for the increase (if this scenario plays out), and he represents the outer edge of NOVA in Culpeper/Madison.
Here is my best guess of 11 GOPs who could favor a tax increase this time around:
Chris Jones - led the fight last time, is from Chesapeake/Suffolk area
Joe May - represents the fast growing Leesburg area
Tom Rust - represents Fairfax/Loudoun, seems to be most the "moderate" in the caucus
Bob Tata - probably will retire after 2007, from Virginia Beach
Glenn Oder - from Newport News
Vince Callahan - from Fairfax, is safely in his seat, may retire in 2007
Harry Parrish - likely retirement in 2007, from Manassas
Bobby Orrock - from high growth areas of Spotslvania and Caroline Counties
*Tim Hugo - another "moderate" from Fairfax
*Phil Hamilton - from Newport News, the "moderate" GOP on the conference committee
*Sal Iaquinto - new delegate from Virginia Beach
(* were not a 2004 tax increase supporters)
Remember, these are the GOPs IF a tax increase is passed by the House that is largely like the one proposed now (raise taxes on gas, fees, etc; all goes to roads in NOVA and Tidewater).
UPDATE: Let me make myself clear, these are the 11 MOST LIKELY to vote for a tax increase if one were to pass the House. Right now it seems that it will be a very hard sell, but if leadership determines the need to pass one; these would be the 11 most likely to vote for it. I have not heard that any of these 11 have ever said they would plan on voting for one, they are just geographically the best bets for a vote.