Redistricting

NLS has up a post about what will likely happen in 2010 with the HOD in redistricting based on who controls the process. He says total GOP control will result in a 6 seat pickup for the GOP whereas a divided government will bring about only a 2 seat gain for the GOP.
I think the more likely scenario is +4 with total GOP control, and I agree with the 2 for a divided government. The other +2 will occur under either scenario as a result of delegate retirement in the 4th and 10th districts. The only difference is if the GOP controls the process in 2010, they may go on and redistrict John Johnson and Ward Armstrong out of their seats (although I doubt it).

The way I will approach the redistricting is I will do a post each day on a different congressional district and what will likely happen with it under a few different scenarios. After all 11 congressional seats are done, I will look at what the targets will be for the HOD redraws. The senate I will probably address later, but I don't see a tremedous change there.

I will have my post on the 1st congressional district tomorrow.