George Allen Leads
A new Rasmussen poll shows George Allen leading Jim Webb 54%-30% and Harris Miller 56%-27%. This is very encouraging, but we still cannot let our guard down. We have to ensure George Allen not only wins, but does so with a considerable margin. To keep his presidential hopes alive, he definitely needs 55% and probably closer to 60% is needed to cement his support for a run in 2008.
Another key to this election is the congressional races. The most competitive race seems to be the 2nd district Thelma Drake race. Keep in mind, this area has a heavy military presense; so a Webb candidacy could help boost Phil Kellam's numbers. To compound the problem, Drake is from Norfolk and 2/3 of the district is Virginia Beach (Kellam is from the Beach).
Also, congressmen like Tom Davis and Frank Wolf seem remotely vunerable due to the poor GOP showing in NOVA in 2005. I do not see these races as threatened as Drake's.
Our friend Bill Carrico is running against Rick Boucher here in the 9th and needs high George Allen turnout. The only conceivable way for him to win is to capture most of George Allen's votes. Don't forget, in 2004 Bush got 59% in the 9th and Boucher got 60%. Allen is likely to have numbers around Bush's, so Carrico needs to carry more of those than Triplett did.
Just remember folks, there is more riding on this race than just a Senate seat.
Another key to this election is the congressional races. The most competitive race seems to be the 2nd district Thelma Drake race. Keep in mind, this area has a heavy military presense; so a Webb candidacy could help boost Phil Kellam's numbers. To compound the problem, Drake is from Norfolk and 2/3 of the district is Virginia Beach (Kellam is from the Beach).
Also, congressmen like Tom Davis and Frank Wolf seem remotely vunerable due to the poor GOP showing in NOVA in 2005. I do not see these races as threatened as Drake's.
Our friend Bill Carrico is running against Rick Boucher here in the 9th and needs high George Allen turnout. The only conceivable way for him to win is to capture most of George Allen's votes. Don't forget, in 2004 Bush got 59% in the 9th and Boucher got 60%. Allen is likely to have numbers around Bush's, so Carrico needs to carry more of those than Triplett did.
Just remember folks, there is more riding on this race than just a Senate seat.
posted by GOPHokie @ 10:34 AM
5 Comments:
At 3/28/2006 10:11 PM,
Anonymous said…
Hoke,
I think bringing Dick Wadhams on as campaign manager will have a giant effect on the campaign. He took down Tom Daschle, I don't think Harris Miller or James Webb scare him. In fact, I think Team Allen is licking their chops for this election.
At 3/28/2006 10:48 PM,
GOPHokie said…
Great point Chris.
One other thing to consider.
This is Allen's first race where he isnt the underdog. He has always had to fight an uphill battle.
Now he just has to hold the hill.
It will be interesting to see him make the transition.
At 3/30/2006 3:16 PM,
Pastor John said…
mr allen will be fine.
the question is: how is your soul?
At 3/30/2006 5:48 PM,
Dvt guy said…
"Allen is likely to have numbers around Bush's"
Unlikely. Bush = Allen. Take John Kerry out of the equation and insert Reagan's former Secretary of the Navy.
Right now I'd project Allen 52, Webb 48. But things can change.
I'd also project Allen 59, Miller 41. Things can't change in that one.
At 3/30/2006 7:08 PM,
GOPHokie said…
I meant in the 9th.
Statewide its hard to say.
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