Scenario 2 - Senate Stops Tax Increase

The only other scenario for this years budget battle is a agreement between the House and Senate to not raise taxes, forcing the governor to sign or shutdown the government. The GOP has 23 members in its caucus and with LG Bolling at the podium, only 20 votes are needed to pass a budget without a tax increase. There is a slight chance that downstate dems like Puckett, Reynolds or Deeds might vote against this tax increase for the same reasons as rural GOPs. Even that is highly unlikely.

Under this scenario, all but 3 in the Republican Senate Caucus must vote for not raising taxes. Most would say Chinchester and Potts are almost guaranteed to support an increase, so only 1 more GOP can break ranks. My guess for that person would be Marty Williams from Newport News. He released a rundown of the money each area of the state would get under the Senate and House plans to try to prove why rural areas should support the Senate's plan too. Also, he can afford to vote this way more so than other "moderate" GOPs in the Senate. Guys such as Stolle, Norment and Stosch are likely to draw primary challengers next time around if they vote for this increase. Williams is less likely to be a target of a primary challenge; especially if the Senate does not end up raising taxes. Also, Norment or Stosch as members of leadership probably would not be voting against the caucus. It is very unusual to see 2 of the 3 in leadership voting by themselves.

I am not sure how likely this scenario is either, but I have heard that even some Senate dems are concerned about the gas tax rebate proposal in the Senate budget plan. Either way, its going to be a wild ride.