Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Monday, March 20, 2006

Looking Toward 2011

With or without the effects of the impending budget battle, there are many questions that surround how redistricting will play out. As most of you know, the 2 Houses draw the districts and then the governor has to sign the drawings. In a situation like 2001, the GOP had total control and was able to basically do whatever they wanted. The big question now is whether that scenario could happen again. Many would say the House is likely to stay in Republican hands til at least 2011 due to an almost structural majority there.
The most pressing question is whether the Republicans will be able to hold the Senate majority in 2007. Many are predicting losses by Cuccinelli, O'Brien and Devolites-Davis which would leave the Senate in a 20-20 tie with LG Bolling breaking ties. Under that scenario, the '09 LG election would determine what party controls the 2011 redistricting process in the Senate. The '09 Governor's election would also set up what party has veto control of the redrawing of lines.

Most would expect that if the GOP controls the entire process a similar outcome of 2001 would occur, with numerous dems being drawn into the same districts, etc.

Also, if there is divided power (GOP House and Senate, dem governor; or GOP House and governor and dem Senate) there will likely be a stalemate with no districts being drastically changed.

The 4th possible outcome brings up this theory: If 2011 has a conservative GOP House and moderate GOP Senate with a dem governor, will the moderate GOPs draw conservative GOP senators out of their seats? Would the conservative House be able to stop it?


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