Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Thursday, February 01, 2007

Primary in the 12th

The primary in the 12th is the battle between incumbent Senate Majority Leader Walter Stosch and challenger Joe Blackburn. This district runs from western Henrico into Goochland County.

As you probably know, this battle is happening over the tax increase stance that Stosch has taken in both the 2004 budget standoff and now in the transportation funding debate.

This is a very GOP area, but more importantly is fiscally conservative more so than socially. Strangely enough, this is a senate district with one of the largest Allen/No votes (or conversely the least Webb/Yes) in the Commonwealth. This makes the race more likely to favor the challenger b/c the GOP base here is Republican because of their fiscal policy stance. Moreover, there is little chance a dem could beat a Republican here; so there won't be concern that voting for Blackburn could cost the GOP the seat.

Obviously Stosch being majority leader makes him a target by the challenge organizations b/c taking him out could help diminsh the power of the pro-tax wing of the party. Furthermore, it makes it very tough for Stosch to claim "its not my fault" when he has alot of control by being in leadership. He is also a member of the hated "Gang of 5".

On the monetary front, Stosch is crushing Blackburn. Cash on hand as of 12/31/06 looks like this:
Stosch: $375,456
Blackburn: $57,366

Blackburn has some serious work to do here to make up ground if he has any shot of winning the nomination. This is largely due to Stosch still having the backing of most of the business community and also the powerful position he welds in the statehouse.

The X-factor in this race could be Blackburn's consultant, Boyd Marcus. Marcus is the consultant for most all the Richmond GOP power players from the delegate seats to Congressman Cantor and LG Bolling. One theory I have heard is that they are going to push very hard to get all these people on board behind Blackburn. I am very skeptical that this will happen (the more likely scenario is they do not support anyone), but if Marcus can deliver these key endorsements, Blackburn will have a very good shot at winning this one. Also, Marcus' connections should enable him to raise a significant amount of cash for Blackburn, thereby closing the massive gap he currently sets in.

I think Stosch has the early advantage; but if Blackburn can get closer to even in the money race and get traction, then it could get very interesting.

UPDATE: Stosch just voted for the transportation plan in committee. That will probably be helpful for him. He then voted against Chichester's plan (which passed).

87 Comments:

  • At 2/01/2007 5:40 PM, Blogger Nick Howard said…

    I'm in the 10th, but I intend to help Blackburn. I don't know how active former Congressman Tom Bliley is anymore, but he will be a featured guest at an upcoming fundraiser for Blackburn.

     
  • At 2/01/2007 10:03 PM, Blogger J.R.Hoeft said…

    EE
    This is an excellent post. Nice to see at least one RINO senator will face a serious primary challenge.

     
  • At 2/01/2007 10:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Actually Stosch was one of the original senators to work with the House on the transportation compromise and opposed the Chichester plan as soon as it was announced.

    Anyone who thinks the majority leader can control what goes on in the Senate the way the speaker can in the House doesn't know anything about how the power is spread out in the Senate. That was done on purpose after the Ed Willey/Hunter Andrews days. Stosch does have power from his seniority which lets him get things done for his district through his committee assignments but he can't control what other senators do the way the speaker can control delegates. Blackburn won't have any seniority for a long time.

     
  • At 2/02/2007 9:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

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  • At 2/02/2007 4:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Senator Stosch must accept a great deal of the blame for the failure of a comprehensive transportation plan being passed by the Senate. In the last GA session Stosch was as hardheaded as Chichester is this session. Stosch did not support using funds from the general fund and only supported a statewide tax increase. His leadership skills must be seriously questioned. He could not produce an agreement from fellow Republicans this session and he would not consider removing Potts from key committees. Now that lack of action has come back to bite him where it hurts. There is only one reason Stosch is not with the Chichester, Hawkins, Potts, Watkins, Quayle, and Hanger clan. JOE BLACKBURN.

     
  • At 2/02/2007 7:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The majority leader doesn't have the power to remove senators from committees. Only the caucus does. And Stosch voted to remove Potts as chairman in the caucus.

    Stosch did support using general fund money for transportation. There was $339M in the plan he voted for.

    Stosch has been involved in the compromise negotiations from the beginning. Just ask Kirk Cox and Terry Kilgore.

     
  • At 2/02/2007 10:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Anon, you are seriously ignorant about politics if you don't think that Stosch swings a hammer in the Senate.

    "Stosch does have power from his seniority which lets him get things done for his district through his committee assignments but he can't control what other senators do the way the speaker can control delegates"

    If Stosch can "get things done for his district" that means he has the ability to push legislation through and/or kill it. You can't do one without the other. He has always been a part of the "gang of five" that controls and dictates all actions in the Senate. Furthermore, Stosch's voting record speaks for itself. There is no need to 'blame' his colleagues.

    Stosch has a consistent record on tax increases. He voted for the $1.4 billion tax increase in 2004, he was a major proponent for the senate proposal last year that EXCEEDED the tax proposal by the Democratic governor, and he personally pushed for the gas tax increase last year...all because the problem was "critical" and Stosch couldn't suggest "where we should start cutting in the General Budget".

    Twelve months later the problem is no longer "acute" according to Stosch to justify a gas tax increase, even though the transportation problem is unchanged.

    Anon: "Stosch has been involved in the compromise negotiations from the beginning. Just ask Kirk Cox and Terry Kilgore."

    Stosch's return to the Republican Platform of fiscal conservatism only 100+ days out from Election Day is clearly intentional, temporary and opportunistic. His fiscal conversion for a few short weeks in January and February is too little too late. If he really wanted to "get things done for his district" he would not be such an advocate of spend and tax.

     
  • At 2/03/2007 11:14 AM, Blogger James Atticus Bowden said…

    Great to have a challenger. We need many more.

     
  • At 2/03/2007 12:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Jamie-So when Stosch votes for tax cuts more than 33 times and votes for tax increases twice in 25 years that's a consistent record on tax increases. Stosch said last year that he was supporting the Senate plan to get something into a conference committee to get a compromise worked out. He has been working on this compromise for a lot longer than January.

     
  • At 2/08/2007 3:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    a lot of people have no idea how the senate power structure works. they are a much more independant body than the House. most senator's vote as they feel best without fear of retribution. you keep hearing how Chichester "forces" GOP senators to do his bidding. i know this is just not the case.

    and as a side note, all these challenges means we will lose control of the senate. think what you want, but it will be different with the dems in control. and they will control redistricting next time around.

     
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