Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Thursday, October 20, 2005

New Ratings

Over at NLS they have updated the ratings for the uncalled HOD races. Our own 26th has been changed to Leans Republican from Toss-Up. Annie B's race in the 6th is still Toss-Up. NLS is saying that GOPs are weakening in alot of places and a few NOVA races have been changed toward the dems. For those of you who haven't seen, there are 2 polls out now that have Kilgore down by 1 or 2 points.

It should be an interesting election night. I fear it could be a long one for us GOPs though. I am still hopefull of our chances in all the races, but the direction of the polls is what concerns me. Its possible that the undecideds are starting to break for the dems in the governor's race since they don't know who is better and they want to stay with the 70% approved of governor's party.
I believe Annie B, Allen Dudley, and Lohr will win, but if NOVA goes bad for us, it could be a bad situation. I wish I had a better handle on those races, but I have no knowledge of those at all.
Any predictions from you folks on election night results?

14 Comments:

  • At 10/20/2005 12:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    As far as undecideds breaking Dem. I think there may be another explanation. Democrats by tradition tend to 'come home' late, in other words, many of those voters were not really independent or undecided, they were really Dems who were ultimately always going to move to the D. column. As far as undecided movement in individual races, undecideds are FAR more likely to break for challengers, the conventional wisdom is that undecideds break against the candidate with the name ID. i.e. If you already know who s/he is, you know if your support is going there or not. "Undecided" when you know who one person is usually means you are not voting that way.

     
  • At 10/20/2005 12:44 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I think your assessment of "indys" is correct.
    I think yoour thought on challengers may not be totally correct, but its certainly has some merit.
    We will just have to watch this thing play out I guess

     
  • At 10/20/2005 1:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The reason I opine that undecideds break for challengers is that the incumbent is already a known quantity. A voter already knows the candidate. While some may be uncertain or willing to look at another option, the bulk of undecideds call themselves that b/c they already know they don't like the incumbent. Otherwise they would tell a pollster they were voting for the current officeholder. Dudley has been in office for years, residents of the 9th already know if they want to re-elect him or not.

     
  • At 10/20/2005 2:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    You can feel the momentumn Lohr has been gaining here in the 26th. Lohr signs are springing up all over!
    Fulk is lossing alot of steam and he knows it. Fulk has started to hit hard with negative mailings and TV/Radio spots. He has no message his only leg he has had to stand on is giving...no one cares about the attendance...

    ...besides the numbers were so manipulated by Fulk it never held anything anyway.

     
  • At 10/20/2005 3:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Rumors are swirling IN RICHMOND that Dave Albo's own polling shows him in a dead heat with Greg Werkheiser...Albo has hit panic mode.

     
  • At 10/20/2005 3:57 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I agree with your assessment anon, I am just not sure all those folks will break for the challengers. It will probly be a large chunk of them though.
    Next anon, I have heard that Lohr signs are spinging up everywhere as well.
    Third anon, I haven't heard much about the Albo race, I just know we think its in the bag and the dems think they are gonna pull the upset. Albo is in a district that will continue to erode, so he will have to hang on til 2009.

     
  • At 10/20/2005 4:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Are you guys insane? Lohr has been putting up a few signs but I've seen so many Fulk signs up recently.

     
  • At 10/20/2005 4:58 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I haven't been home so I personally don't know.
    I have heard Lohr has gotten 250 more sign locations in the last few weeks.
    I can't prove or disprove that though.

     
  • At 10/20/2005 5:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    The reason I think in the 26th that undecideds will break to Lohr is that Fulk's name ID was probably higher. He'd run before and made a huge point to keep his name in the forefront for the past couple of years. This slightly contradicts what I said about Dems. coming home late, but let's face it, there are not a whole lot of Dems in the 26th! Any undecided R's may have taken a look and decided Lohr was the lesser of two evils.

     
  • At 10/20/2005 6:07 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I agree. If Fulk hasn't convinced those conservatives to vote for him yet, they will probably just do what they always do, which is vote Republican.

     
  • At 10/21/2005 12:07 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said…

    6:57 anon put it very well.

     
  • At 10/21/2005 11:11 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Yes they did.

     
  • At 10/21/2005 1:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I live in the 26th and there are a lot of new Lohr signs! I believe that your sign estimate is correct. Matt Lohr has got this race under control!

    Fulk was able to make some noise early on but that was it!

     
  • At 10/21/2005 6:47 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    In the words of my friend, "theres alot of smoke w/ that race, but I'm not sold there is a fire."

     

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