5th District Redrawing

The 5th district is one of the districts that will probably see a sizable change in 2010. Due to continued manufacturing job losses, the population is stagnant at best. The only area of the district seeing growth is the Albemarle area, which is also the democratic stronghold in the district. Due to the 9th district having to enlarge as well, the lines for the 5th could be draw a few different ways.

Almost any scenario will probably result in the 5th gaining more of Bedford County and Lynchburg City from the 6th. That would be an addition of around 80k people, so that is the most likely setup. It would also be a relatively conservative area being brought into a weak district.

Some have proposed that if Bob Goodlatte is for some reason not the congressman in the 6th come 2010, they may draw a Valley district that can dilute Albemarle/Charlottesville and thereby protect the 5th. That would push the entire Roanoke area into the 9th and then allow the 5th to pickup a good portion of the current 9th (Henry, Carroll, Floyd, Patrick and Grayson Counties). This would also allow Boucher to lose a good portion of his district enabling the Roanoke area to command more power in the district. This scenario is highly unlikely though, b/c it would require the retirement of Goodlatte in the next 4-6 years.

The third and most obscure possibility is that the dems control the process in 2010 which would likely result in Roanoke City and Franklin County being drawn into the 9th to draw Goode and Goodlatte in Boucher's district with virtually none of their former districts. This is even more unlikely since the dems would need to gain control of the House by 2010 which is unlikely.