The Fightin' Ninth

Probably the most interesting district redraw in 2010 will likely be the 9th district. As a result of a stagnant population the 9th could growth substantially in size in 2010. It all depends on the strategy of the map drawers.

If the GOP is in total control and Boucher (or another dem) is the congressman, some have proposed drawing Goodlatte or Goode into Boucher's district to defeat him. I personally think this is unlikely due to the fact that both of those guys have very stable districts and wouldnt likely want to have a tough race if it wasnt necessary. Even so, if this was the chosen path the 9th district would probably look much different than its current state.
Drawing Goodlatte in would probably result in the district gaining all of Roanoke City/County and Botetourt while losing the eastern areas of Grayson, Carroll and Henry Counties. This is risky b/c Roanoke city has tradionally been a democratic stronghold and might be enough to give Boucher the race. Also the areas that would be lost are some of the strongest GOP localities in the current 9th district.
Drawing Goode into the district would likely result in the 9th being drawn through Franklin, Pittsylvania and Halifax Counties and losing Montgomery, Roanoke and maybe Pulaski Counties. This too is risky b/c it would still only gain marginally GOP areas and lose marginally dem areas. Both is these strategies still likely have a 9th that has significantly more Boucher constituents than the GOP challenger.

The other strategy here is to have the 9th gain more of Henry and Roanoke Counties and keep everyone in their current seats (or Franklin County if Virgil Goode is no longer the congressman in the 5th). This the more likely scenario, but it too has its pitfalls.
As I referred to in my 6th district post, every redistricting sees the Roanoke area continue to lose power in their congressional district. Based on current projections, under this scenario Roanoke County would be 60% in the 9th with the other 40% plus Salem and Roanoke city in the 6th. This combined with the loss of Bedford/Lynchburg and the gain of Page, Warren and Frederick Counties; the new 6th's power-center would be in the northern Shenandoah Valley, not Roanoke. Roanoke may or may not like this, but my guess is they would like to see a district where the Roanoke metro area is not diluted so they can retain power of a congressional district.

A third thing to remember is that the Shenandoah Valley loves Goodlatte. Some people I talk to say that Valley delegates Gilbert, Saxman, Lohr, Landes and Cline may fight very hard to keep Goodlatte representing the Valley areas b/c everyone likes him so much. This too could play into where the 9th gets drawn come 2010.

All these concerns could make for a very interesting redrawing of the 9th in 2010.