Dem Congressional Challengers
Some democrats throughout the blogosphere have complained that no one running against Bob Goodlatte, Randy Forbes or maybe Eric Cantor. I am not sure I understand their concern. Apparently these dems think any seat can be won by any party at any time. WRONG!
Those 3 seats (along with JoAnn Davis in the 1st) are virtually unbeatable. The districts are conservative enough that nothing short of an arrest would cause these people to lose.
Anyway, from a strategic prospective running someone here is stupid as well. If Harris Miller or Jim Webb is going to beat George Allen, they are going to do it in NOVA and Tidewater. They will need huge margins in those areas and need Allen to get small margins (and turnout) in the more conservative rural areas and the Richmond suburbs. In order to do this, they will need to prevent high turnout in those areas by not challenging the congressmen there. No one is going to beat Goodlatte, but if someone runs against him, the district will vote in droves to ensure he wins. Most all extra votes in the 6th will likely be George Allen voters. Same goes for the 7th and the 4th. I would even argue that not challenging Tom Davis and Frank Wolf would be a good idea. That way GOPs wouldn't go vote to ensure those guys won, but dems would be voting for Miller/Webb.
The dems now think they are world beaters and can win every race, and that mentality may be what prevents them from winning some big races this year.
Those 3 seats (along with JoAnn Davis in the 1st) are virtually unbeatable. The districts are conservative enough that nothing short of an arrest would cause these people to lose.
Anyway, from a strategic prospective running someone here is stupid as well. If Harris Miller or Jim Webb is going to beat George Allen, they are going to do it in NOVA and Tidewater. They will need huge margins in those areas and need Allen to get small margins (and turnout) in the more conservative rural areas and the Richmond suburbs. In order to do this, they will need to prevent high turnout in those areas by not challenging the congressmen there. No one is going to beat Goodlatte, but if someone runs against him, the district will vote in droves to ensure he wins. Most all extra votes in the 6th will likely be George Allen voters. Same goes for the 7th and the 4th. I would even argue that not challenging Tom Davis and Frank Wolf would be a good idea. That way GOPs wouldn't go vote to ensure those guys won, but dems would be voting for Miller/Webb.
The dems now think they are world beaters and can win every race, and that mentality may be what prevents them from winning some big races this year.
posted by GOPHokie @ 12:08 PM
6 Comments:
At 5/07/2006 1:47 PM,
.... said…
Democrats not democrats.
At 5/07/2006 3:15 PM,
GOPHokie said…
lol
At 5/08/2006 7:23 PM,
Anonymous said…
Gosh, thanks Elephant Ears! By your reasoning Bill Carrico is an even bigger idiot than we all think. No one should ever run unless they know they are going to win.
In fact, what a fool Rick Boucher was in 1982 to take on "Worthless William" Wampler who had won his last three races with more than 70% of the vote.
In the immortal words of race car great Richard Petty, when he conceded defeat in the race of Secretary of State in North Carolina several years ago. "If I'd-a knowed I was gonna lose I'd-a never run."
At 5/08/2006 8:48 PM,
GOPHokie said…
Well Carrico running may be a good thing in that he is going to try and ride the George Allen coattails.
It will also likely drive up turnout in the 9th, which will help Allen.
Conversely, driving up turnout in the 6th by running someone against Goodlatte who is about 99.99% likely to be reelected anyway, is stupid on the dems part.
See the difference?
Whats better for you guys, 30-40% in a congressional race or beating Allen?
At 5/10/2006 2:37 PM,
Anonymous said…
don't forget Forbes is a high roller taking 30grr of Delay/Abromoff cash..of course, no one really cares, the lazy uninterested people of these districts are getting the representation they deserve..
At 5/11/2006 3:26 AM,
Anonymous said…
Carrico's chances of riding "Allen's coattailes" to victory against Boucher are less than 0. Wasn't that the "brillent" strategy in 2004? Give NASCAR-boy (what was his name anyway) a big bankroll and let him ride the boy-Emperor's coattailes into office? How did that turn out? Despite a solid win for Bush in the 9th Boucher destroyed him in a landslide.
Now in an off year election in a Democratic year someone is going to ride Allen's coattailes? No wonder Carrico has $9,000 in the bank.
There is no grand strategy involved in not running someone against Goodlatte. Given Goodlatte's popularity and the fact that his district was gerrymandered to be overwhelming republican no good candidate would step forward. Duh!
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