Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Interesting Crosstabs

As you have probably seen on a few blogs, there is a new poll out on Thelma Drake's race. The polling agency is doing a Majority Watch website that is polling the top 30 House races this year. They seem to be very accurate, low margin of error polls.
Anyway, the couple of crosstabs I have looked at shows that in the Drake race as well as a the others I have looked at, over 20% of self-identified Republicans are voting for the democrat. Folks, if this poll accurately predicts that 20% of GOPs vote dem; there is no way in hell we will keep the House.
If that is the case, it will also explain why districts that voted solidly for Bush in 2004 are going democratic. Its not b/c of changing voting patterns, its b/c GOPs are mad.

This also bears a second question; if the dems do take the House this November, how long will dems be able to hold it if they are being elected largely by Republicans?

Just some food for thought.

12 Comments:

  • At 9/06/2006 11:35 PM, Blogger CR UVa said…

    Well, are these Republicans disaffected enough to vote for Democrats, or simply not show up to the polls? And in such a case, how will this affect the outcome for each race?

     
  • At 9/07/2006 8:07 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Well we are assuming they are going to vote since they were included in the sample of "likely voters" but anything is possible.

     
  • At 9/07/2006 8:09 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Actually upon further checking they were lumped into the whole sample.
    Now we have another big question.

     
  • At 9/07/2006 9:24 AM, Blogger Jack Landers said…

    I think that it's going to improve the Democrats' chances of holding on to the House for a while. More so than if the Democrats were building a wave based entirely on liberal activism and conservative apathy.

    Republicans are starting to switch parties. It's happening in a big way in Kansas and it's started to happen in Virginia, too. Jim Webb being the poster boy. I coordinated the petition drive to get Webb on the ballot in Charlottesville/Albemarle and I can tell you that most of my volunteers were Republicans until last year.

    I know that y'all Republicans like to think of the Virginia Democrats as far-left loonies, but truthfully we're probably more conservative than, say, the Massachusetts Republican Party. Our leadership is a bit right-of-center compared with the country as a whole. Why is this? Because our successes have depended on courting former Republican voters.

    Conservatives are starting to take over the Democratic party. Again, we've got a Reagan Republican carrying our banner in this Senate race. Most of our House challengers in Kansas are Republicans who switched parties in the last year. This is happening all over America to different degrees.

    You should be thrilled about this. The days of Democrats pushing for gun control and Hillarycare are over. The fact that so much of our success in November will have come from putting conservatives in office will preclude the Diane Feinstein types from ever moving their agendas forward. Within their own caucus, left-wing Democrats will find themselves increasingly isolated. This will make it much easier for us to retain the Republican voters that we're wrangling in this year. Guys like Phil Kellam are not going to be voting for the kind of leftist pork that would infuriate our new constituencies. They know better.

    Congratulations - much of the conservative revolution has apparantly succeeded. You didn't really think it was going to lead to a single-party system, did you?

     
  • At 9/07/2006 10:27 AM, Blogger zen said…

    I think it will also depend largely on how a Democratic led House performs—assuming they do gain control. Republicans have been elected and not performed well at all when given the chance, and control of every branch. If they cannot do it then, what other choice is there but to try another alternative?

     
  • At 9/07/2006 11:57 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    JL, I agree it is refreshing to see dems running as conservatives. It would be nice to have our agenda passed even if we aren't in power. That certainly is your arguement for why they should win.
    The problem is that conservative democrats getting elected will result in people like Nancy Pelosi actually running the show. That is what concerns me. Alot of America will vote for people like Va and Ka dems thinking thats the kind of leadership they will get. That simply will not happen due to who will be in line to take the reins.
    This is also the reason I think if the dems take the House in 06, they will hand it back to us in 08.

     
  • At 9/07/2006 4:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Read the real poll on http://hrpolitics.blogspot.com/

     
  • At 9/07/2006 9:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    gophokie-

    "Our agenda" should be stated as "our conservative ideals" now that would be refreshing. If the Dems. want to pick up the banner of limited government that the GOP has so quickly disgarded that's great!

     
  • At 9/07/2006 10:15 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    The dems try to say they are for limited government, but then say they want more social programs and nationalized healthcare.
    Our system isnt great, but we havent went that far yet.

     
  • At 9/07/2006 11:17 PM, Blogger Rick Sincere said…

    There is palpable anger among grass-roots Republicans against officeholders at every level. They feel betrayed by Republican legislators who have been growing the government at a faster rate than Bill Clinton and almost as fast as Lyndon Johnson. They feel betrayed by increasing federal interference in state and local government, an abandonment of the promise to allow private Social Security accounts and to cut back on entitlements. (Instead, we get the Medicare drug benefit boondoggle.) Farm subsidies, the transportation Christmas tree bill ... I could go on, but my vomitorium has reached capacity.

    That Thelma Drake criticizes fellow Members of Congress for refusing, on principle, to seek pork for their districts speaks volumes about her commitment (that is, lack of one) to conservative values of small government and reduced spending.

    What happened to the party of Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater? Is it just a distant memory?

     
  • At 9/08/2006 6:26 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Unfortunately it will be until someone wakes our party up Rick. Maybe we need to lose Congress to do that.

     
  • At 9/09/2006 9:56 AM, Blogger Arlyss said…

    I truly wish the majority of Republicans were as thoughtful about the issues as you appear to be, Elephant Ears. I am neither Republican nor Democrat; last presidential election, I voted Libertarian, out of frustration with BOTH candidates.

    We here in Virginia have an opportunity to show how managerial, consensus-building politics can work for ALL the people. The hope is that the young people coming up in both parties will move away from the appeals to emotion, and towards discussion of the issues we face in this great Commonwealth.

    As an educator, I hope for no less, and plan to vote that way.

     

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