Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Potential Primary in the 13th

The 13th Senatorial district is currently occupied by 4-term Senator Fred Quayle. This district runs from Chesapeake/Portsmouth through southside areas like Southampton and Surry Counties.

Quayle has received alot of grief from GOPs for his support of tax increases in 2004 and this year's gas tax proposal (he voted against the Stolle/Norment plan). He is also one of the 4 GOPs who voted to give Potts his Education and Health chairmanship even after running as an independent for Governor in 2005.

This district seemingly has a better chance for a takedown due to it being very spread out and the ability to challenge Quayle on both social and fiscal issues. Fiscal issues being tax increases and social being that he gave pro-choice Potts the chairmanship of the committee that deals with most abortion related legislation. Quayle will have to build a general coalition to win, as opposed to most Senators we have seen who can bank on the social conservatives to carry the day for them. Whats worse for Quayle is that this district isn't nearly as solidly GOP as other seats (there is already a declared dem Steven Heretick in this race); so dems may actually support a challenger in the primary to get a better shot at a victory here. This of course does have the advantage for Quayle in that GOPs may be leary of voting against him in fear of losing the seat.

No one has officially announced for this seat, but Bearing Drift reported a few days ago that Del. Chris Jones or 4th District GOP Chair Wayne Ozmore may challenge. Either of these would be strong challengers. My guess is Jones probably won't b/c he would essentially have to give up his safe GOP delegate seat to challenge Quayle. Ozmore on the other hand could be a major force having connections throughout the district; and possibly the backing of Congressman Randy Forbes. I don't really know much more than that at this time regarding who might challenge.

On the money front, Quayle has $57,548 on hand; which is pretty low. This low money amount may be more fuel to convince someone to challenge; since they could match him in money very quickly.

Like the Watkins race, this obviously doesn't have a rating unless he gets a challenger; and even then that person would dictate some of the matchups. Even so, I think Quayle is probably one of the more vunerable incumbents this year if he draws a strong challenger.

6 Comments:

  • At 2/07/2007 6:16 PM, Blogger Jim Hoeft said…

    GOP Hokie,
    Good post. I will be writing more on this possible race soon. Some decisions as to who will or will not run are forthcoming.

    I will say this though...your analysis is solid.

     
  • At 2/07/2007 6:19 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Thanks JR. I am sure you have a better handle on that area than me; so keep us up to date.

     
  • At 2/08/2007 11:50 AM, Anonymous Proud Republican said…

    Wayne Ozmore lives in Chesterfield County, which is not in the Quayle district. I'm not aware that he owns any property in the Quayle district, either.

     
  • At 2/08/2007 12:03 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    That is what I thought as well PR, but there again I don't know where JR got his info either.

     
  • At 2/08/2007 3:23 PM, Anonymous VA guy said…

    What you all aren't taking into account is this; when an incumbent gets a intra-party challenger, the PACs and lobbyists will pony up huge amounts of cash in a very, very short period of time. One Senator I know collected $79,000 from PACs in 3 days.

    If someone is going to take on Quayle (or any other sitting incumbent) they'd better be independently wealthy or otherwise have some very good connections. The money guys almost always go with the incumbent. Thus, making up a 50-70K deficit is not as easy as it sounds.

     
  • At 2/08/2007 4:27 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Va Guy, I agree with your assessment; but its certainly better than someone taking on say Norment who already has 200k in the bank and can then raise another 79k in 3 days.

     

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