The Bolling Effect
I still think the GOP will hold this seat b/c it is an area that is trending more GOP (Caroline County voted for Bush in '04, the first time in forever they had voted GOP in a presidential election). I do agree that Peace will have to do well in Hanover to win, but I think he will run stronger in other areas as well.
This is assuming he doesn't pull a Brad Marrs or something of the like.
If we do lose this seat, it could be the final nail in the coffin of a few leadership members of the RPV.
UPDATE: Here are the results from the governor's election in this district.
Caroline: Kilgore-1632, Kaine-2338
Hanover: Kilgore-4657, Kaine-2069
Henrico: Kilgore-1443, Kaine-1062
King & Queen: Kilgore-371, Kaine-475
King William: Kilgore-731, Kaine-584
New Kent: Kilgore-3179, Kaine-2241
Spotslvania: Kilgore-797, Kaine-670
Total: Kilgore 12,810, Kaine-9439
This is a pretty strong GOP district. It better stay that way.