The Bolling Effect

Over at NLS he has an anaylsis of what is going to happen after Bill Bolling resigns his Senate seat to take over as Lt. Governor. Del. Ryan McDougle will run for the Senate seat and win. Then McDougle's delegate seat will come open. Chris Peace is the most likely GOP nominee (the only one I have heard of). I have a pretty good feeling that he will get the nod. NLS thinks that John Montgomery (who ran against McDougle in '01) will run as the democrat for the seat in this special election.
I still think the GOP will hold this seat b/c it is an area that is trending more GOP (Caroline County voted for Bush in '04, the first time in forever they had voted GOP in a presidential election). I do agree that Peace will have to do well in Hanover to win, but I think he will run stronger in other areas as well.
This is assuming he doesn't pull a Brad Marrs or something of the like.
If we do lose this seat, it could be the final nail in the coffin of a few leadership members of the RPV.

UPDATE: Here are the results from the governor's election in this district.
Caroline: Kilgore-1632, Kaine-2338
Hanover: Kilgore-4657, Kaine-2069
Henrico: Kilgore-1443, Kaine-1062
King & Queen: Kilgore-371, Kaine-475
King William: Kilgore-731, Kaine-584
New Kent: Kilgore-3179, Kaine-2241
Spotslvania: Kilgore-797, Kaine-670
Total: Kilgore 12,810, Kaine-9439
Kilgore-57.6%, Kaine-42.4%

This is a pretty strong GOP district. It better stay that way.