First off, Del. Ryan McDougle will be running for Bill Bolling's Senate seat. Chris Peace will then be running for McDougle's Delegate seat. Assuming McDonnell does win the AG's race, thats the only special election we should have.
As for '06, the only 2 questions we have are who the dems will run as the sacrifical lamb against George Allen and who the GOP will run against Boucher in the 9th Congressional District. I do know Kevin Triplett will not be running for that seat again. Other than that, I have heard no names.
Now for '07. In SWVA, I don't see many races shaping up other than a Ferguson-Dudley rematch and perhaps another GOP try at the 10th delegate seat. Even so, I think Armstrong will have to tick alot of people off to lose. As for Dudley, hopefully he will shape up and try to win back some support in the district. If he doesn't, we could very well lose this seat 2 years from now.
In the Valley, I think Fulk will probably not run a third time. The big question is will Sen. Hanger draw a primary challenger. Even if he does I doubt he will lose. SWAC owns the 24th district and Hanger is well liked in the area. Republitarian is hinting that Matt Tedrick may run against Obenshain in the 26th, but I will believe it when I see it. I also hear the GOP is looking for a candidate to run against Sen. Houck in the 17th. This is a pretty strong GOP district, but Houck is pretty well liked there, so I am not sure we will be able to take that seat.
I have heard Deeds (asssuming he doesn't win AG) will retire from the Senate. If that happens, that could be an interesting nomination battle, but the seat will stay in democratic hands. The timing of his retirement would make a huge difference in who throws their hat into the ring here. Hopefully we will know more on that later.
Then there is the 27th Senate seat of Russ Potts. Right now we know of 3, possibly 4 people running for the GOP Nomination. Jill Holtzman is already starting her campaign. Mark Tate (the primary challenger to Potts last time) will certainly run again. Phil Griffith seems to be in the hunt for the seat. George Fitch also is widely rumored to be running. Potts says he isn't running, but the verdict is still out on that. Personally, I would give the edge to Holtzman at this point due to her vast financial resources and early campaigning as well as Tate losing last time and the uncertain future of Chairman Kate.
I am hearing Sen. Colgan will probably retire in '07 so we may be able to pick that seat up if we run a good candidate, but I have heard no names yet. We should also be able to retake the 32nd and 67th House seats if we run good candidates and if they can raise money. I am sure we will target other races in NOVA as well, but those are the main 2 we should be able to retake.
We should also be able to retake the 68th seat with a good candidate. Also, watch the 75th and the job Roslyn Tyler does. Don't be surprised to see Carson Saunders run again if Tyler doesn't do a great job. That was a super close race in a super democratic district.
I will probably have my '09 rundown sometime next week.
Is there anything else shaping up that I don't know about?