Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Saturday, November 12, 2005

Looking Forward

Now that elections are over, we can begin to look to the future elections. Here is a rundown of some races through '07.

First off, Del. Ryan McDougle will be running for Bill Bolling's Senate seat. Chris Peace will then be running for McDougle's Delegate seat. Assuming McDonnell does win the AG's race, thats the only special election we should have.

As for '06, the only 2 questions we have are who the dems will run as the sacrifical lamb against George Allen and who the GOP will run against Boucher in the 9th Congressional District. I do know Kevin Triplett will not be running for that seat again. Other than that, I have heard no names.

Now for '07. In SWVA, I don't see many races shaping up other than a Ferguson-Dudley rematch and perhaps another GOP try at the 10th delegate seat. Even so, I think Armstrong will have to tick alot of people off to lose. As for Dudley, hopefully he will shape up and try to win back some support in the district. If he doesn't, we could very well lose this seat 2 years from now.
In the Valley, I think Fulk will probably not run a third time. The big question is will Sen. Hanger draw a primary challenger. Even if he does I doubt he will lose. SWAC owns the 24th district and Hanger is well liked in the area. Republitarian is hinting that Matt Tedrick may run against Obenshain in the 26th, but I will believe it when I see it. I also hear the GOP is looking for a candidate to run against Sen. Houck in the 17th. This is a pretty strong GOP district, but Houck is pretty well liked there, so I am not sure we will be able to take that seat.

I have heard Deeds (asssuming he doesn't win AG) will retire from the Senate. If that happens, that could be an interesting nomination battle, but the seat will stay in democratic hands. The timing of his retirement would make a huge difference in who throws their hat into the ring here. Hopefully we will know more on that later.

Then there is the 27th Senate seat of Russ Potts. Right now we know of 3, possibly 4 people running for the GOP Nomination. Jill Holtzman is already starting her campaign. Mark Tate (the primary challenger to Potts last time) will certainly run again. Phil Griffith seems to be in the hunt for the seat. George Fitch also is widely rumored to be running. Potts says he isn't running, but the verdict is still out on that. Personally, I would give the edge to Holtzman at this point due to her vast financial resources and early campaigning as well as Tate losing last time and the uncertain future of Chairman Kate.

I am hearing Sen. Colgan will probably retire in '07 so we may be able to pick that seat up if we run a good candidate, but I have heard no names yet. We should also be able to retake the 32nd and 67th House seats if we run good candidates and if they can raise money. I am sure we will target other races in NOVA as well, but those are the main 2 we should be able to retake.
We should also be able to retake the 68th seat with a good candidate. Also, watch the 75th and the job Roslyn Tyler does. Don't be surprised to see Carson Saunders run again if Tyler doesn't do a great job. That was a super close race in a super democratic district.

I will probably have my '09 rundown sometime next week.

Is there anything else shaping up that I don't know about?


  • At 11/13/2005 10:38 AM, Anonymous Chad said…

    Del. Bill Carrico is running against Rick Boucher.

  • At 11/13/2005 2:19 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Really? I havent seen Bill for a while.

  • At 11/13/2005 3:25 PM, Anonymous ziik said…

    i wouldn't be suprised if the D's find an opponent for Marshall in the 14th. I can't find the numbers by HD but I'd have to imagine Kaine took it by a fair margin.

  • At 11/13/2005 4:48 PM, Anonymous Chad said…

    Yep. Heard it from Del. Carrico's own mouth.

  • At 11/13/2005 6:48 PM, Anonymous conservative majority said…

    For Colgan's seat, at least one contender for the GOP nod will be Bob Fitzsimmonds. There are rumors of a Connaughton run as well (fagedaboutit). Probably others too. . .

  • At 11/13/2005 8:09 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I will bet anything that Connaughton doesnt run for the Colgan's seat.
    Thanks for the heads up on Carrico in the 9th.
    Ziik, Kaine did win Marshall's district by a good margin probably, but Marshall be tougher to beat next time without Kaine on the ballot. A statewide race hurt us bad in NOVA this time. I don't look for our guys to run as weak in '07 up there, but who knows.

  • At 11/13/2005 9:59 PM, Blogger too conservative said…

    what is fagedaboutit?

    ...and I don't think Connaughton will run either.

  • At 11/13/2005 11:47 PM, Blogger Politicl.Animal said…

    If I were a betting man, I'd take Saxman against Hanger in the 24th senate primary. I'm not sure there are enough GOP moderates to save Hanger from the anti-tax crowd.

  • At 11/14/2005 12:32 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I dunno Adam. I haven't heard of anyone that is going to try to take down Hanger. Plus, Hanger would make it a primary where he would never lose.
    I will agree Saxman would have the best shot of anyone at taking his seat though. I just think Chris has other ideas.

  • At 11/14/2005 8:51 AM, Blogger Politicl.Animal said…

    The only way Hanger would win is if Democrats voted in the primary for him. If he votes for Kaine's budget next year he will be on Grover Norquist's chopping block, and we all know Saxman took the "No Tax Pledge" and is a big Grover fan.

    Poli Amateur has Saxman as a potential LG candidate ... without Senate experience, he would end up like Chap Petersen.

    I think Saxman's only hope of statewide office lies in taking down Hanger ... that will solidify movement conservatives behind him and perhaps put some aquaphobia in possible competitors.

  • At 11/14/2005 12:22 PM, Anonymous conservative majority said…

    I didn't say Connaughton would run for it. I said there are rumors of it, which there are. I believe he is politically dead. He has burnt too many bridges with the Prince William BOS and with Tom Davis (who btw created Connaughton in his mad scientist laboratory). "Fagedaboutit" was my not very eloquent way of saying that Connaughton should forget about running for ANY public office.

  • At 11/14/2005 12:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Fitzsimmons is an asshole and so is Sean.

  • At 11/14/2005 5:30 PM, Blogger The Chief said…

    If Connaughton can find a way to get through the primaries, then he'll be a terrific statewide candidate for Gov. Sadly, in the currently structured party where Bill Bolling is the titular head, there is little chance Chairman Sean could get to that point.

  • At 11/14/2005 5:42 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Adam, your arguement is strong here. Even so, I think if Chris wants to run for LG, he may not want to divert attention to running a very competitive Senate race. Also, if he loses to Hanger, that will hurt his chances even more of winning the LG nod. Don't forget, Saxman would probably have to leave his delegate seat to get the senate one.
    As to Chap, his problem was not lack of experience, it was lack of being a flaming liberal. Party people don't vote for the moderates. Thats why the GOP put up Bolling and you guys put up Byrne.
    As to Chairman Sean, I dunno about all his enemies in NOVA; but I do know his stock just went up statewide when the GOP ticket lost NOVA by about 15-20 points.


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