Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Monday, November 07, 2005

New Poll

SurveyUSA has released the last poll before the election that shows Kaine leading by 9 points. Kilgore is losing by huge margins everywhere except a 9 point lead in the Valley (he is down 35 points in NOVA). The poll even shows Kaine tied in the rural vote.
I must admit I am very suspicious of a poll like this, since I cannot fathom Kaine getting elected by the biggest margin of all recent governors, but who knows. I also cannot fathom a NRA rated F candidate getting a tied vote in rural Virginia.
All that being said, GOPs better pray hard tonight. If the numbers are in fact like this poll implies, we could very well lose huge numbers of HOD seats tomorrow night. Every competitive seat on the board will break democrat tomorrow if our numbers are this bad.
If the election turns out this way, many heads will roll in the RPV.

I am still standing by my predictions, but only b/c I question the validity of this poll. There are 25 hours left until this is all over. Then the waiting begins.

UPDATE: SurveyUSA has changed it numbers as a result of "unusual volatility". They now have Kaine up 50-45. The link is here.
I also hear that Kilgore released their internals which said its 45-45.
We will know for sure in about 20 hours or so I suppose.

7 Comments:

  • At 11/07/2005 6:21 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said…

    If we didn't want it close, we wouldn't have put up the slate that we put up. It's much more exciting this way. Wouldn't you feel bored and listless if you had known for weeks that competent GOP nominees with life stories that include non-political success from outside the Richmond funhouse would all win by double-digit margins? We could have done that, but we would have lost the adrenaline load most of us are feeling now. Enjoy the next 24 hours. Next time, we may go the boring route.

     
  • At 11/07/2005 8:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    SurveyUSA's methodology does not make ANY DAMN SENSE. First of all, they inexplicabley survey 1500 people, and then of those, 1242 are registered voters. Why are they surveying the 278 that are NOT REGISTERED??? They never tell you how they determine 'likely voters.' This alone speaks volumes about how rigorous they are regarding letting the public know their screening procedures. I would not worry about this. I just don't believe it's possible.

     
  • At 11/07/2005 8:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    SurveyUSA's methodology does not make ANY DAMN SENSE. First of all, they inexplicabley survey 1500 people, and then of those, 1242 are registered voters. Why are they surveying the 278 that are NOT REGISTERED??? They never tell you how they determine 'likely voters.' This alone speaks volumes about how rigorous they are regarding letting the public know their screening procedures. I would not worry about this. I just don't believe it's possible.

     
  • At 11/07/2005 8:25 PM, Blogger AWCheney said…

    Nova Scout,

    I must respectfully disagree. I believe we may well find the electorate in a state of malaise (or should I say "shock") with little incentive to drag themselves out to the polls. I mean, it's not like we've seen any honorable, issue-oriented campaigns this season with clearly defined candidates who could really get the heart pumping, now have we.

     
  • At 11/07/2005 8:33 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I think your right about turnout. It will be very low, as a results of no enthusiasm and no big time issues.

     
  • At 11/07/2005 10:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    FYI, Commonwealth Conservative is saying that the poll is bogus. Survey USA Results from just today show the race TIED. Frankly, Kaine by 9 simply doesn't pass the laugh test.

    I'm tired of liberal-slanted polls trying to depress Republican spirits and turnout.

    Get out and vote tomorrow!! We'll know the truth soon enough.

    DB

     
  • At 11/07/2005 10:56 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I realize that, but Chad is a GOP after all.
    I am as well, and the crosstabs are screwy.
    I am just saying we better hope it doesnt happen like that poll says.
    I hear Kilgore released his internals and it shows a dead heat 45-45.
    We shall see in about 20 hours or so.

     

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