My Take on the HOD Races
In the 9th, Dudley will win as well, but he won't blow Ferguson out. Same deal here, the Kilgore margin will carry him over the finish line.
In the 6th, I think Annie B will win; but a very, very close race. Keister doesnt have the fund edge he had last time and Annie B has gotten much more help from the RPV.
In the 68th, I think Marrs will pull out the victory, but it may be close enough to scare him. Kilgore will have a nice edge here.
In the 91st, I see Gear doing better than expected and winning by a decent margin. Kilgore will do well here as well.
In the 75th, the GOP is dreaming. Saunders may show some good numbers for the district, but there is no chance that we win that seat.
The other 6 seats are in NOVA. Turnout will be a big IF here. With the lack of excitement in this campaign, turnout will be low. In NOVA it will be even lower than the rest of the state b/c voting is a pain in the butt as it is. People aren't going to fight traffic to vote when they don't care. Conventional wisdom says that low turnout helps GOPs, but it also means weird things happen. The margins Kilgore gets, especially in the "exerbs" of Farifax, Loudoun and PWC will make a huge difference here.
That being said, I think Dick Back (R-32) will be victorious barring unforseen circumstances. Same goes for Jeff Frederick in the 52nd and probably Craddock in the 67th. Dave Albo can win the 42nd if the turnout is in our favor, but otherwise he is probably toast. Mike Golden probably cannot win in the 41st unless the 72-hour program reallys brings it home for us and Kilgore does much better than expected in NOVA. John Mason will probably win in the 37th if Kilgore does at least reasonably well in NOVA.
If by some chance Kilgore performs as bad as some polls say and he loses Loudoun or PWC, I would say Black and Frederick are the only ones out of the 6 who can win. Even though will be very, very close under that circumstance.
I am not from NOVA and hear almost nothing about it so that is why my analysis is basically speculation. I do know the party thinks we will be ok if we get the turnout we need, but who knows if that will happen. I think ultimately the outcome will be the GOP gaining 3 seats in a best case scenario and the dems having a net gain of 5 at worst. As it stands right now,I would say if we only lose the 41st, it will be a wonderful night for us.
One other piece of info, the weather forecast for election day looks clear for the entire state. So much for the grand dem strategy of a flood or snowstorm in SW and the Valley but clear skies in NOVA.