Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

My Take on the HOD Races

In the 26th, I continue to believe Lohr will win. I don't really know how close it will be, but Kilgore will carry the day here if nothing else.
In the 9th, Dudley will win as well, but he won't blow Ferguson out. Same deal here, the Kilgore margin will carry him over the finish line.
In the 6th, I think Annie B will win; but a very, very close race. Keister doesnt have the fund edge he had last time and Annie B has gotten much more help from the RPV.
In the 68th, I think Marrs will pull out the victory, but it may be close enough to scare him. Kilgore will have a nice edge here.
In the 91st, I see Gear doing better than expected and winning by a decent margin. Kilgore will do well here as well.
In the 75th, the GOP is dreaming. Saunders may show some good numbers for the district, but there is no chance that we win that seat.

The other 6 seats are in NOVA. Turnout will be a big IF here. With the lack of excitement in this campaign, turnout will be low. In NOVA it will be even lower than the rest of the state b/c voting is a pain in the butt as it is. People aren't going to fight traffic to vote when they don't care. Conventional wisdom says that low turnout helps GOPs, but it also means weird things happen. The margins Kilgore gets, especially in the "exerbs" of Farifax, Loudoun and PWC will make a huge difference here.
That being said, I think Dick Back (R-32) will be victorious barring unforseen circumstances. Same goes for Jeff Frederick in the 52nd and probably Craddock in the 67th. Dave Albo can win the 42nd if the turnout is in our favor, but otherwise he is probably toast. Mike Golden probably cannot win in the 41st unless the 72-hour program reallys brings it home for us and Kilgore does much better than expected in NOVA. John Mason will probably win in the 37th if Kilgore does at least reasonably well in NOVA.
If by some chance Kilgore performs as bad as some polls say and he loses Loudoun or PWC, I would say Black and Frederick are the only ones out of the 6 who can win. Even though will be very, very close under that circumstance.

I am not from NOVA and hear almost nothing about it so that is why my analysis is basically speculation. I do know the party thinks we will be ok if we get the turnout we need, but who knows if that will happen. I think ultimately the outcome will be the GOP gaining 3 seats in a best case scenario and the dems having a net gain of 5 at worst. As it stands right now,I would say if we only lose the 41st, it will be a wonderful night for us.

One other piece of info, the weather forecast for election day looks clear for the entire state. So much for the grand dem strategy of a flood or snowstorm in SW and the Valley but clear skies in NOVA.

13 Comments:

  • At 11/02/2005 11:16 PM, Blogger Steven said…

    With Kilgore polling 3-to-1 against Kaine, the Shenandoah Valley's Republican turnout will decide the outcome of the house race.

    Nonetheless, the 26th House District will be an extremely close election.

    Democrat Fulk has ran a solid campaign, but the conservative numbers edge falls to Matt Lohr.

    ~ the blue dog

     
  • At 11/02/2005 11:37 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Thanks for the insight Steve.
    I am using the same theory as you.
    The funny part is, some of the latest polls say Kilgore is losing in the Valley. Since we know that will never happen, I wish we could get better polls to get an idea of where this race is.

     
  • At 11/03/2005 6:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Would also be interesting to see two particular things from those polls. One is how strongly each candidate's support is. i.e. Do Kaine/Kilgore voters feel very very strongly about their guy, or will they not bother voting if it rains or they get stuck in a meeting? The other is how well do they run amongst their own party memeber. A couple published polls have talked about this, and it has seemed that GOP'ers are stronger for Kilgore than Dems. are for Kaine.

     
  • At 11/03/2005 10:01 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Well actually most polls I have seen show Kaine gaining more dem support than Kilgore's support among GOPs.
    Its not a huge margin there, but it may be enough for Kaine the even the score to offset for the higher number of GOPs. Also, according to the polls, Kaine is drawing more "independent" support.
    Even so, most of the polls lately have been crap in my opinion. They have Kaine winning the Valley.
    I think you are right about that statistic making a big difference on election day.
    Hopefully it will break to our benefit.

     
  • At 11/03/2005 1:07 PM, Blogger Gone said…

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

     
  • At 11/03/2005 1:10 PM, Blogger Gone said…

    Republican sweep of the statewide offices. I am predicting the biggest margin of victory of the three will be by Bolling for Lt. Governor.

    Comment on the 91st District:

    One of the most conservative in the state. It is a walk in the park for Delegate Gear. His voting record is pretty conservative, however he is a man of very questionable character, and has no personal integrity whatsoever. I would do a write-in vote if I lived in that district.

     
  • At 11/03/2005 3:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    You people are so disconnected from reality--it's kinda scary.

    You have no idea just how endangered every GOP seat in Northern VA really is, even in GOP districts....

     
  • At 11/03/2005 3:40 PM, Anonymous JamesRiverGOP said…

    I agree with Anon 3:25 pm. Nova is topsy-turvy this year.

    Craddock will lose. Golden will lose. Black may very well lose. Marshall will win marginally. Albo will win marginally. Mason/Bulova is a toss-up.

    GOP candidates who've run the last half-decade with little trouble are seeing Nova's demographics change on them. The GOP will have to change, too, or risk losing some this year, more in two years.

    The GOP cannot afford to keep nominating hard-right folks. Must nominate pro-business men and women who are in the mainstream.

     
  • At 11/03/2005 5:31 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I think you folks are right about an impending doom in NOVA.
    If Kilgore runs as bad there as some polls indicate, we will get crushed on election night.
    If not, we may survive for another 2 years.

     
  • At 11/04/2005 10:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Yet another sign of desperation from Dick Black:

    http://getblackout.blogspot.com/2005/11/hes-like-so-third-grade.html

     
  • At 11/04/2005 4:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    "I am not from NOVA and hear almost nothing about it so that is why my analysis is basically speculation."

    You are from the 9th District either but that hasn't stopped you from spouting off on things there.

     
  • At 11/04/2005 4:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    What GOPHokie said was both that he was not from NOVA and that he heard little/nothing about it. He is not from the 9th but may have sources there, and maybe some friendly GOP bloggers send him updates or insider information. I don't think he "spouts" and is pretty reliable about prefacing things with how he got certain information or why he holds a particular opinion.

     
  • At 11/04/2005 5:29 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Thanks anon. He is correct, I do hear things about the 9th but I knwo no one with NOVA connections so basically I base all of my info on there from blogs that I read (which may be a bad idea) and statewide polling. I can also previous voting patterns in districts like the 9th they are pretty constant. NOVA districts change so much that previous data isnt usually helpful.

     

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