Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Sunday, November 06, 2005

My Election Predictions

Kilgore wins 49-48 (Potts gets 3)
Bolling wins 53-47
McDonnell wins 52-48

6th: Annie B wins 52-48
9th: Dudley wins 56-44
10th: Armstrong wins 55-45
26th: Lohr wins 54-46
32nd: Black wins 52-48
37th: Mason wins 51-49
41st: Marsden wins 52-48
42nd: Albo wins 51-49
52nd: Frederick wins 52-48
67th: Craddock wins 53-47
68th: Marrs wins 52-48
75th: Tyler wins 52-48
91st: Gear wins 55-45
This means I have predicted a 2 seat pickup for the GOP (6th, 37th, and 99th and lose the 41st)

My prediction for statewide turnout is 42%. If turnout is below 40%, all bets are off and it will be a crazy election night. Even turnout below 40% in NOVA (which is a good possibility) could cause a huge shift in those HOD races. Its really hard to say which way it would swing though.
I am hoping for the best (4 seat pickup and win all statewide races) and preparing for the worst (lose 2 seats and Kilgore loses).
I'd like to hear from you folks what your predictions are, or at least critique mine.

13 Comments:

  • At 11/06/2005 6:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Maintain your youthful optimism as long as you can. It is much better than being a bitter (older) man.

     
  • At 11/06/2005 8:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I would also like to note that your earlier predictions included a double digit blowout by Tech.
    Even by couching your prediction in partisan terms, your numbers in the ninth are simply silly.

     
  • At 11/06/2005 9:15 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I don't ever remember predicting a VT victory over miami by doubt digits, but maybe I did.
    As to the election predictions, they are what I honestly expect.
    If they were wishful predictions I would have us winning the 10th, 41st and 75th

     
  • At 11/06/2005 10:26 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said…

    GOP Hokie, one piece of news coming out in the 41st that will cheer us both. I'll announce it later tonight.

     
  • At 11/06/2005 10:58 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I hope so NLS.
    We need to hold all the NOVA seats that we can.

     
  • At 11/06/2005 11:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Sorry to say you may be too optimistic about the 26th. If Lohr wins it's going to be by a much smaller margin then Kilgore wins SWVA.

     
  • At 11/07/2005 4:36 AM, Blogger I'm Not Emeril said…

    You're a little optimistic in the 9th, but the result will probably be the same. In the 10th however, you're too fatalistic. If Armstrong wins, his margin will be only 1 or 2 points. He only won the last contested race with 53%, this time his opponent is better known,(but not much better at campaigning I'm afraid), and Henry County is growing tired of his lack of accomplishment.

     
  • At 11/07/2005 8:17 AM, Anonymous pro-life dem said…

    youre nuts in the 26th, 3 points at most either way

     
  • At 11/07/2005 11:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    26th holds water...
    Fulk is on defensive, Lohr has all the momentum at the right time and an (R) with his name.

     
  • At 11/07/2005 12:24 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    emeril, the 10th has certainly gotten better since a few months ago when Young only had 3 or 4 grand to armstrong's 200k.
    That said, I am not sure Young can come even close as a result of the fundraising edge.
    If Kilgore does much better than I expect in Henry county Young may get close though.

     
  • At 11/08/2005 6:31 AM, Blogger I'm Not Emeril said…

    You're right about the Henry County effect, gophokie. Ms. Stone, the local Registrar is predicting a lower than normal turnout in Henry County, and that would help Young while hurting Kilgore. However, the Patrick County Registrar is looking for a 60% or better turnout. If that happens Henry County (the only place Ward can prevail) may not provide enough votes for Ward to overcome his weakness in Patrick and Carroll.

     
  • At 11/08/2005 1:35 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Well emeril, if that happens, we might have an upset in the 10th.
    Have you heard anymore about that this morning?

     
  • At 11/08/2005 8:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Your crystal ball was right on for the Lohr-Fulk race!!!!!

     

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