97th District Update
According to VPAP, the race to replace Ryan McDougle looks like it could an all out money war.
In the previous filing John Montgomery (D) led Chris Peace (R) in fundraising $112k to $28k which each having $13-14k on hand. In the past 4 days, Montgomery has received $93,666 in donations. His largest donations in that group is a $26,666 donation from the Dem House Caucus, $20k from Kaine and another 20k from Mark Warner's PAC.
Chris Peace has received $96,775 in the same 4 day span. His largest donor is $40k from Speaker Howell's Dominion Leadership Trust and a $10k loan from himself.
As I have said before, this is a fairly highly GOP district. It was a 57% district for Kilgore so it is a much stronger GOP seat than the other 2 special House elections (the 3rd was a 53-47 Kilgore seat and the 23rd was a 52-48 Kaine seat). Also, this area showcases some of the strongest grassroots GOP units in the state. That being said, Montgomery came very close to beating McDougle in '01 and has a massive fund advantage right now. That coupled with our through whippings in the previous 2 races leaves more than uneasiness for us GOPs in this race. Also, Peace being a lobbyist couldn't come at worse time either.
I am confident that we can win this race and I think Chris Peace is a good candidate. One other thing that gives me comfort is that Matt Wells is running the campaign. He is well-qualified, knows the area well, and is a great person for the job. Even so, there is a decidedly democratic "wave" right now. Lets hope we break that and win this race, along with the 33rd Senate race. Everyone should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
In the previous filing John Montgomery (D) led Chris Peace (R) in fundraising $112k to $28k which each having $13-14k on hand. In the past 4 days, Montgomery has received $93,666 in donations. His largest donations in that group is a $26,666 donation from the Dem House Caucus, $20k from Kaine and another 20k from Mark Warner's PAC.
Chris Peace has received $96,775 in the same 4 day span. His largest donor is $40k from Speaker Howell's Dominion Leadership Trust and a $10k loan from himself.
As I have said before, this is a fairly highly GOP district. It was a 57% district for Kilgore so it is a much stronger GOP seat than the other 2 special House elections (the 3rd was a 53-47 Kilgore seat and the 23rd was a 52-48 Kaine seat). Also, this area showcases some of the strongest grassroots GOP units in the state. That being said, Montgomery came very close to beating McDougle in '01 and has a massive fund advantage right now. That coupled with our through whippings in the previous 2 races leaves more than uneasiness for us GOPs in this race. Also, Peace being a lobbyist couldn't come at worse time either.
I am confident that we can win this race and I think Chris Peace is a good candidate. One other thing that gives me comfort is that Matt Wells is running the campaign. He is well-qualified, knows the area well, and is a great person for the job. Even so, there is a decidedly democratic "wave" right now. Lets hope we break that and win this race, along with the 33rd Senate race. Everyone should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
posted by GOPHokie @ 12:01 AM
15 Comments:
At 1/21/2006 12:48 AM,
Joe Friday said…
http://carolinejustice.blogspot.com/2006/01/chris-peace-im-confused.html
At 1/22/2006 10:29 AM,
Anonymous said…
Tom James,
Do you just go to every blog that mentions Chris Peace and post the link to your post about him? Thats a pretty lame way to try and get people to actually read your blog and believe it to be of any consequence...
At 1/22/2006 3:18 PM,
.... said…
John Montgomery is a west point grad and iraq veteran. He is pro-life, anti-gay marriage, and is endorsed by the NRA. Who is Chris Peace?
At 1/22/2006 4:25 PM,
Anonymous said…
Sorry hokie,
Montgomery will win this. He has been very active all over the district. Peace needs a huge vote in Hanover. Peace is running the Kilgore campaign all over. Kaine ran a suburban campaign, not a rural one. He just wanted to hold the line in the rural counties. But Dems in KW, K&Q, Caroline, and Spotsy are fired up about Monty. He just needs 40% in Hanover, which is doable over a lobbyist who has moved three times to live in the 97th, and who wants to be a lawmaker that has failed the bar twice. Because of Hanover Peace has a shot, but Montgomery wins it.
At 1/22/2006 4:55 PM,
GOPHokie said…
"Everyone should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst".
Believe me, its not out of my realm of thinking that we lose this one.
I did get a little bit of encouragement eariler today though.
At 1/22/2006 6:02 PM,
Anonymous said…
What gave you hope GOPHokie?
At 1/22/2006 7:17 PM,
Anonymous said…
NOVA Dem: My understanding is that the NRA did not make an endorsement in this race.
At 1/22/2006 7:27 PM,
GOPHokie said…
I will try to find out if the NRA has made an endorsement.
6:02, I can't disclose that at this time.
At 1/22/2006 8:50 PM,
.... said…
And you would be correct, I apologize for the misstatement, they gave him an A and have not yet made in endorsement. Thanks for correcting me.
At 1/22/2006 8:59 PM,
Anonymous said…
I doubt that they'll make an endorsement, since they gave Peace an "A" rating as well.
List of some of Peace's endorsements from his website:
National Federation of Independent Businesses
VA Society for Human Life
VA Citizen's Defense League
VA Conservative Action PAC
2006 "A" Rating National Rifle Association
VA Club for Growth
Mike McHugh, President of VA Gun Owner's Coalition
Virginia Society for Human Life PAC
At 1/22/2006 9:39 PM,
.... said…
With the exception of the NRA, all of those are nothing organizations that were created by republicans to make candidates look good.
At 1/22/2006 9:52 PM,
Anonymous said…
Keep tellin yourself that.
At 1/22/2006 10:09 PM,
GOPHokie said…
VCDL wasnt created for GOPs, they were very critical of Kilgore. Ditto for VCG. NFIB is a very good organization.
VCAP is basically a GOP group. The same could probably be said about the pro-life groups.
I dunno much about the Va Gun Owners Association so I cant say anything about them.
At 1/22/2006 10:40 PM,
Anonymous said…
I suppose these guys were just created by the GOP too:
http://vaconservative.com/archives/2006/01/22/rtd-endorses-chris-peace/
From the Richmond Times-Dispatch:
The race to succeed Ryan McDougle in the 97th House of Delegates District offers voters two appealing candidates. Both Republican Chris Peace and Democrat John Montgomery are civic-minded and have a firm grasp of public policy. Yet Peace’s stances on a range of issues make him the natural heir to the popular McDougle.
Peace has the upper hand on tax issues: opposition to an increase in the gas tax, full repeal of the state’s death tax, and keeping the nearly 9-year-old promise to end the car tax. He has innovative ideas about bolstering rural health care, and structural reform of Medicare. The Republican candidate wants to protect Virginia’s natural resources, by cleaning up the Chesapeake Bay and improving water quality. Peace also hopes to emulate the career of Delegate Frank Hargrove; he promises to build seniority in the House instead of searching for the next office to claim.
Tomorrow’s special election does not present voters with a choice between the lesser of two evils. Both men have admirable records of service to the community. Peace’s agenda of mainstream reform and ability to hit the ground running give him the clear edge. Citizens of the 97th District should choose Chris Peace as their next Delegate.
At 1/23/2006 12:01 AM,
GOPHokie said…
Before the dems invade, it should be noted that the RTD rotinuely endorses GOPs. Its not exactly a liberal paper. Now if the Post were to endorse Peace, that would be another story.
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