Allen/Bush Numbers from 2000
NLS has started a series of posts looking at Bush and Allen numbers from 2000. He points out how there was only a 0.2% difference in their statewide numbers, but that does not correlate to each locality. He is starting out looking at the 1st congressional district and seeing what differences there are.
The biggest thing I noticed was that Allen outperformed Bush mainly in the northern neck areas of Caroline, King & Queen and Richmond Counties, whereas Bush outperformed Allen in Gloucester, James City and York Counties and Poquoson, Hampton and Newport News.
My hunch is this is due to the rural and military citizens of this area. The areas Allen outperformed Bush were the very rural bay counties which Allen's southern twang and cowboy boots would play well in. Don't forget, in 2000 the NOVA migration had not extended into these areas yet.
Conversely, the counties where Bush outperformed had high military voting blocks which vote heavily GOP but not 100%. Gore was viewed as an anti-military candidate like Clinton and so Bush garnered an even higher military vote than Republicans typically receive. Robb was not perceived as such an anti-military candidate so he performed in line with typical democrats in the military community. Keep in mind, a large number of voters in this area not only are members of the armed forces, but are employed in the defense industry and are very concerned with job security.
This may play into the strategy in 2006, especially if Jim Webb is the dem nominee. Webb's vast military creditials would seemingly help him actually cut into the decidely GOP base that military voters typically represent. I would assume this would be the cornerstone of Webb's political strategy, in concert with seemingly lower numbers for Allen in NOVA.
If we look closer, these trends mirror our 2005 races. Bolling ran 5% ahead of Kilgore in Gloucester County and Newport News, 7% ahead in James City County and 8% in Poquoson.
At least in the 1st district, Webb's (or Miller's) strategy should be the Kaine strategy.
The biggest thing I noticed was that Allen outperformed Bush mainly in the northern neck areas of Caroline, King & Queen and Richmond Counties, whereas Bush outperformed Allen in Gloucester, James City and York Counties and Poquoson, Hampton and Newport News.
My hunch is this is due to the rural and military citizens of this area. The areas Allen outperformed Bush were the very rural bay counties which Allen's southern twang and cowboy boots would play well in. Don't forget, in 2000 the NOVA migration had not extended into these areas yet.
Conversely, the counties where Bush outperformed had high military voting blocks which vote heavily GOP but not 100%. Gore was viewed as an anti-military candidate like Clinton and so Bush garnered an even higher military vote than Republicans typically receive. Robb was not perceived as such an anti-military candidate so he performed in line with typical democrats in the military community. Keep in mind, a large number of voters in this area not only are members of the armed forces, but are employed in the defense industry and are very concerned with job security.
This may play into the strategy in 2006, especially if Jim Webb is the dem nominee. Webb's vast military creditials would seemingly help him actually cut into the decidely GOP base that military voters typically represent. I would assume this would be the cornerstone of Webb's political strategy, in concert with seemingly lower numbers for Allen in NOVA.
If we look closer, these trends mirror our 2005 races. Bolling ran 5% ahead of Kilgore in Gloucester County and Newport News, 7% ahead in James City County and 8% in Poquoson.
At least in the 1st district, Webb's (or Miller's) strategy should be the Kaine strategy.
posted by GOPHokie @ 11:08 PM
2 Comments:
At 5/30/2006 3:22 PM,
Anonymous said…
The Kaine strategy worked fairly well, get 45% in Stafford/Spotsy, win Newport News and Hampton areas, and do well in James City/York. Kaine achieved these objectives and got around 46% in a district that Kerry received 39%. If Webb can get close to that watch out.
At 5/31/2006 12:40 AM,
GOPHokie said…
Well on a larger scale, the dems need to win some of the suburbs especially the urban/suburban crossover areas (aka Fairfax and Henrico Counties).
The same holds true for the 1st district. A dem is highly unlikely to win York County, but if they can get the GOP numbers down and then win the areas they should convinvingly (Hampton), you will win.
That is the same strategy the dems will need in 2006.
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