Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Tuesday, September 20, 2005

New Polls

As you all know, there are a few polls out right now on the Va Governor's race.
Rasmussen Reports has Kilgore leading 43%-40% and Potts with 5%.
Mason-Dixon has Kilgore leading 41%-40% and Potts with 6%.
Washington Post has Kilgore leading 45%-41% and Potts with 5%.
Now SurveyUSA has a poll (thanks to Chad Dotson for pointing this one out) which has Kilgore leading 46%-43% and Potts with 4%.
One interesting thing about the SurveyUSA poll is that it has breakdowns for regions, urban/suburban/rural, as well as demographic results.
If you notice, in the Northeast (NOVA) Kilgore has a 46-41 edge.
Folks, if that number holds, we are smooth sailing to victory. No democrat can win statewide in Virginia if they lose NOVA by 5 points.
Another interesting statistic is that Kilgore is laying the whooping on Kaine for the youngest age bracket 51%-34%.
I am telling you folks, Gen Y is a Republican generation.


  • At 9/20/2005 10:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Publishing polls without knowing methodology is only giving readers a small percentage of the information they need to know. It is important is how the pollster defines 'likely voters', i.e. do they just ask people if they are going to vote? Do they ask if they have voted in previous elections? M-D polls are done with RDD's [random digit dialers] meaning it is possible that somebody that responds to the poll is not even registered to vote. Also, does anyone know what type of turnout models these companies use? In other words, have they accounted for what percentage of the vote comes out of what region and from what demographic? It matters more or less where a candidate leads/lags if there are not a lot of votes cast in that place. NOVA accounts for a huge number of voters, so we know it's a big deal. As far as Kilgore leading with younger voters, CW holds that younger folks are more conservative.

  • At 9/20/2005 11:22 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Thats true, but it will gives an idea of what type of support is out there.
    The funny thing is that M-D is considered by many to be the most reputable, but it shouldn't be.
    I personally believe in Rasmussen over all the others (take a look at his results in last years elections).

  • At 9/21/2005 3:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    you just better hope that the hick kilgore keeps his lispy mouth shut, he really embarrassed himself in Fairfax, just proves that you GOP kool aid crowd would vote for a dead snake as long as it was a republican...this good fically responsible government is getting old anyhow

  • At 9/22/2005 10:58 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Some of my friends have been saying that for some time now.
    They are worried Kilgore cannot relate to NOVA people. That is fine if he runs strong in SWVA to offset (yes I know the populations are far different, but if Kilgore wins SWVA by a wide margin he will win the race).
    I do not think he is running as strong in SW as he should.
    He should get margins around Bush's (60% in the 9th district).
    I think he will get closer to 55%.
    As usual, the Valley will have to win it for us.

  • At 9/22/2005 11:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    go team go, win the election..rha rha rha....ever considered for voting for a canidate base on things other than the fact they are on yoru team, i regullary do

  • At 9/22/2005 1:00 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I am a fiscal conservative, but there aren't really any candidates who will do that (I was opposed to the tax increase and Kilgore was too but Kaine and Potts supported it). No one will really try to cut spending, so I have to goto social issues.
    Kilgore is pro-gun, pro-death penalty, pro-marriage amendment (even though the governor doesnt matter). Also Kilgore thinks we need less affirmative action policies at our universities (which is a wonderful idea).
    Kaine will end the death penalty if given the chance and is a pro-gun control candidate.
    Potts is lair on abortion, so who knows what he will do on anything else.
    So anon, why are you voting for Kaine(or Potts)?


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