NLS anaylsis
NLS has his new analysis of the 26th district race. He seems to think that things are coming apart in Fulk's campaign and that an upset may be less likely if things don't change.
I have always believed that Lohr will win, but I think the "valley dems" are wrong here. I think Fulk's manager is probably doing things right. Besides, how do the valley dems have any room to complain? They haven't won a race in so long, I don't know how they think they know how to win either.
Lohr's campaign strategy has been to win in November, nothing more, nothing less. There have been some hiccups along the way, but they have stayed the course.
I still think you people out there are also underestimating the statewide races. While the turnout was almost the same from 2001 to 2003 in the district, the top race was not there. Even if someone gets a poll call and says they want to vote for Fulk, they will probably be less likely to (if they are a GOPer) because they will start voting for Kilgore and continue down w/ GOPs along the way.
I proposed the question if you folks thought there would be reverse coattails here and you all don't think so.
The only way Fulk can win is if Kaine performs much better than expected in Rockingham/H'Burg.
The Valley almost always votes straight ticket on EVERY SINGLE RACE (all the way down to supervisors). If this race was in SWVA, where people are well known for voting person not party, I would say Fulk would have a very, very good shot.
If Kilgore gets at least 65% in Rockingham, Lohr will win. If he is lower (indicating a Fulk coattail effect), Fulk may have a shot.
I have always believed that Lohr will win, but I think the "valley dems" are wrong here. I think Fulk's manager is probably doing things right. Besides, how do the valley dems have any room to complain? They haven't won a race in so long, I don't know how they think they know how to win either.
Lohr's campaign strategy has been to win in November, nothing more, nothing less. There have been some hiccups along the way, but they have stayed the course.
I still think you people out there are also underestimating the statewide races. While the turnout was almost the same from 2001 to 2003 in the district, the top race was not there. Even if someone gets a poll call and says they want to vote for Fulk, they will probably be less likely to (if they are a GOPer) because they will start voting for Kilgore and continue down w/ GOPs along the way.
I proposed the question if you folks thought there would be reverse coattails here and you all don't think so.
The only way Fulk can win is if Kaine performs much better than expected in Rockingham/H'Burg.
The Valley almost always votes straight ticket on EVERY SINGLE RACE (all the way down to supervisors). If this race was in SWVA, where people are well known for voting person not party, I would say Fulk would have a very, very good shot.
If Kilgore gets at least 65% in Rockingham, Lohr will win. If he is lower (indicating a Fulk coattail effect), Fulk may have a shot.
posted by GOPHokie @ 10:41 AM
3 Comments:
At 9/22/2005 11:12 AM,
Anonymous said…
Just a thought, but there is a difference between "campaign coming apart" and a campaign not looking as good up close as it did six months out. The campaign may bet the same as always, but as it gets closer to E-Day there will be more scrutiny and what you do and don't do will be more important. Strategy and fundraising and GOTV are more important that marching in parades and putting up lawn signs.
At 9/22/2005 12:54 PM,
GOPHokie said…
Exactly.
One other point I have is that for Fulk, he will not get alot of help from the state dems on GOTV, bc it will hurt Kaine.
At 9/23/2005 5:25 AM,
Anonymous said…
Fulk will get help from the House Caucus, it's their job to elect Dem. Delegates. OTOH, they have a lot of leeway in what they choose to do for him. If they feel he's not doing what he should, they'll take him off the target list.
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