Fairfax Fallout
NLS has a great post up on the spiraling numbers for the GOP in Fairfax County. He chronicles the slide from George W. Bush's 6,000 vote victory in 2000 to Kilgore's 60,000 vote loss in 2005. He even says that some at the DSCC think a Jim Webb victory of 100,000 votes in Fairfax County is not out of the question this year. Before we go any further, lets look at the likelyhood of that happening.
The turnout in 2004 was 460k and in 2005 it was 270k. My guess is that the turnout in this year's race will be somewhere between those, so lets say 365k voters in Fairfax this year. That would be turnout of 58.6%, which is reasonable. Based on this turnout number, the final count would be 232k Webb, 132k Allen and 1000 write-ins and indys. That would mean Webb would be getting 63.6%. For comparison, Kaine got 60.15% in Fairfax last year.
As Ben's post points out, this is the best case scenario for them, and it assumes Bush's poll numbers fall another 5 points or so. While I am not sure how those numbers can fall any further without him being revealed as satan (therefore losing the religious right's backing), I do think that a 100k loss in Fairfax is possible. This race will be tell tale sign as to whether Virginia is really in play in 2008, or whether we just like dem governors and GOP presidents.
I will have a few more posts related to this topic, such as the strategy of how Allen can win if he loses Fairfax by 100k, and also what the possible fallout will be in the event Allen loses this year.
The turnout in 2004 was 460k and in 2005 it was 270k. My guess is that the turnout in this year's race will be somewhere between those, so lets say 365k voters in Fairfax this year. That would be turnout of 58.6%, which is reasonable. Based on this turnout number, the final count would be 232k Webb, 132k Allen and 1000 write-ins and indys. That would mean Webb would be getting 63.6%. For comparison, Kaine got 60.15% in Fairfax last year.
As Ben's post points out, this is the best case scenario for them, and it assumes Bush's poll numbers fall another 5 points or so. While I am not sure how those numbers can fall any further without him being revealed as satan (therefore losing the religious right's backing), I do think that a 100k loss in Fairfax is possible. This race will be tell tale sign as to whether Virginia is really in play in 2008, or whether we just like dem governors and GOP presidents.
I will have a few more posts related to this topic, such as the strategy of how Allen can win if he loses Fairfax by 100k, and also what the possible fallout will be in the event Allen loses this year.
posted by GOPHokie @ 9:39 AM
2 Comments:
At 6/23/2006 10:47 AM,
nova_middle_man said…
Losing Fairfax by 100k is pretty far fetched I think. Allen is a much better politican than Kilgore is and Kaine ran on the suburban vote. Also, its a federal election vs state. That being said Allen shouldn't be taking anything for granted and he should be actively fighting for every vote. Relying on Southside and Southwest to propel him to victory is a recipe for disaster. The campaign realizes this. I think the main thing to watch in this race will be if Allen goes negative and if so when, where, and how he does it.
At 6/24/2006 9:51 PM,
GOPHokie said…
I agree, but the question is whether this election will be about George Bush or George Allen.
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