My Take on Webb vs. Miller
Basically the only issue in the Va blogosphere for the past few months has been regarding Tuesday's primary between Jim Webb and Harris Miller. We have heard most all the dem bloggers endorse Jim Webb while most of the Virginia democratic establishment has endorsed Harris Miller.
I think this is very similar to the GOP in 2005 with Bolling vs Connaughton. While I don't think Connaughton had 90+% support from the blogs like Webb has, he had a very commanding lead among bloggers. Conversely, Bolling largely had the support of the Virginia Republican establishment. As we all know, Bolling won a pretty convincing victory in a super low turnout primary last year.
I will agree that these 2 races aren't quite the same from all perspectives, but there still remains the point that the establishment won in our LG race, and basically won the GOP AG and Dem LG races as well.
Alot of dem bloggers seem to think they control their party and are calling Miller to retire from the race due to Webb's "over-arching support". As history has shown, blogs don't give an accurate portrayal of a party's primary voters.
I imagine this will somewhat hold true on Tuesday as well. If Jim Webb breaks 55% it will greatly surprise me, and my prediction is more around the 52% or 53% range. Certainly turnout being so low could create a very interesting outcome, and who turns out will make a big difference. Even so, I think most dems outside the young activist group will probably vote for Miller.
My opinion is that the higher the turnout, the better Miller will do. This is in stark contrast with people like NLS who think just the opposite. My reasoning for this is the nature of the race. It seems to me that Miller's campaign is about money and media, whereas Webb is about grassroots. If the turnout is very, very low Webb will do very well b/c most dems are not interested in who challenges Allen. As turnout rises, it will probably signal that Miller's ads have struck a cord with the democrats who are prepared to turn the Republican in sheep's clothing away from the ballot box. Also, if it is a close race GOP crossover for Miller may actually deliver the race to him.
My final predictions:
Turnout under 2% will see Webb 60+%
Turnout of 2-3% will see Webb between 55-60%
Turnout of 3-5% will see Webb around 52 or 53%
Turnout above 5% will see Webb at or below 50% and probably a Miller victory
I think this is very similar to the GOP in 2005 with Bolling vs Connaughton. While I don't think Connaughton had 90+% support from the blogs like Webb has, he had a very commanding lead among bloggers. Conversely, Bolling largely had the support of the Virginia Republican establishment. As we all know, Bolling won a pretty convincing victory in a super low turnout primary last year.
I will agree that these 2 races aren't quite the same from all perspectives, but there still remains the point that the establishment won in our LG race, and basically won the GOP AG and Dem LG races as well.
Alot of dem bloggers seem to think they control their party and are calling Miller to retire from the race due to Webb's "over-arching support". As history has shown, blogs don't give an accurate portrayal of a party's primary voters.
I imagine this will somewhat hold true on Tuesday as well. If Jim Webb breaks 55% it will greatly surprise me, and my prediction is more around the 52% or 53% range. Certainly turnout being so low could create a very interesting outcome, and who turns out will make a big difference. Even so, I think most dems outside the young activist group will probably vote for Miller.
My opinion is that the higher the turnout, the better Miller will do. This is in stark contrast with people like NLS who think just the opposite. My reasoning for this is the nature of the race. It seems to me that Miller's campaign is about money and media, whereas Webb is about grassroots. If the turnout is very, very low Webb will do very well b/c most dems are not interested in who challenges Allen. As turnout rises, it will probably signal that Miller's ads have struck a cord with the democrats who are prepared to turn the Republican in sheep's clothing away from the ballot box. Also, if it is a close race GOP crossover for Miller may actually deliver the race to him.
My final predictions:
Turnout under 2% will see Webb 60+%
Turnout of 2-3% will see Webb between 55-60%
Turnout of 3-5% will see Webb around 52 or 53%
Turnout above 5% will see Webb at or below 50% and probably a Miller victory
posted by GOPHokie @ 12:21 PM
7 Comments:
At 6/09/2006 1:55 PM,
Vivian J. Paige said…
Interesting. Like last year's primary, I think the lower numbers will help Miller instead of Webb. Further, I can't imagine that the turnout will be 5%. I expect it to be between 2% and 3%, with Miller ekeing out a 51%/49% win.
Just my two cents :)
At 6/09/2006 3:07 PM,
Anonymous said…
THe HIGHER the turout..the more that would have helped Sean.
The HIGHER the turnout the more it helps webb.
the LOWER the turnout..the more extreme peope come out.
At 6/09/2006 3:44 PM,
GOPHokie said…
We shall see.
I agree Vivian that 5% would be very high. Even so, I think it would need to be that high for Miller to win.
At 6/09/2006 3:53 PM,
CR UVa said…
Webb is grassroots? Wait a second, isn't he getting most of his endorsements from nationally known names while Miller is getting support from local politicians?
At 6/09/2006 10:26 PM,
GOPHokie said…
He has the young people.
Last time I checked, delegates and senators dont do much phone calling or door knocking for people. Most of them dont anyway.
At 8/14/2006 6:17 AM,
Anonymous said…
I read somewhere that Bird Flu is expected to arrive in the USA or Canada this fall.
It said it killed almost 60% of those who got infected.
Is it true ?
What can we do to avoid it ?
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