Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Friday, June 09, 2006

My Take on Webb vs. Miller

Basically the only issue in the Va blogosphere for the past few months has been regarding Tuesday's primary between Jim Webb and Harris Miller. We have heard most all the dem bloggers endorse Jim Webb while most of the Virginia democratic establishment has endorsed Harris Miller.
I think this is very similar to the GOP in 2005 with Bolling vs Connaughton. While I don't think Connaughton had 90+% support from the blogs like Webb has, he had a very commanding lead among bloggers. Conversely, Bolling largely had the support of the Virginia Republican establishment. As we all know, Bolling won a pretty convincing victory in a super low turnout primary last year.
I will agree that these 2 races aren't quite the same from all perspectives, but there still remains the point that the establishment won in our LG race, and basically won the GOP AG and Dem LG races as well.
Alot of dem bloggers seem to think they control their party and are calling Miller to retire from the race due to Webb's "over-arching support". As history has shown, blogs don't give an accurate portrayal of a party's primary voters.
I imagine this will somewhat hold true on Tuesday as well. If Jim Webb breaks 55% it will greatly surprise me, and my prediction is more around the 52% or 53% range. Certainly turnout being so low could create a very interesting outcome, and who turns out will make a big difference. Even so, I think most dems outside the young activist group will probably vote for Miller.

My opinion is that the higher the turnout, the better Miller will do. This is in stark contrast with people like NLS who think just the opposite. My reasoning for this is the nature of the race. It seems to me that Miller's campaign is about money and media, whereas Webb is about grassroots. If the turnout is very, very low Webb will do very well b/c most dems are not interested in who challenges Allen. As turnout rises, it will probably signal that Miller's ads have struck a cord with the democrats who are prepared to turn the Republican in sheep's clothing away from the ballot box. Also, if it is a close race GOP crossover for Miller may actually deliver the race to him.

My final predictions:
Turnout under 2% will see Webb 60+%
Turnout of 2-3% will see Webb between 55-60%
Turnout of 3-5% will see Webb around 52 or 53%
Turnout above 5% will see Webb at or below 50% and probably a Miller victory


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