The district is made up of Accomack, Mathews, and Northampton Counties as well as parts of Norfolk and Va Beach.
The 2005 breakdown looks like this:
Kaine won 53.9%-46.1%
Bolling won 51.6%-48.4%
McDonnell won 52.1%-47.9%
This district certainly has the makings of an interesting race. The strategy of this district also makes it even more interesting. Mathews and (usually) Accomack are GOP strongholds whereas Northampton is a dem stronghold. The Va Beach section is GOP, but it only 2 precincts so it has very little effect. Nofolk commands around half of the district, and is a tossup section of the city (Kaine won it 55-45, Bolling won 50.1-49.9 and McDonnell won 51-49).
The basic GOP strategy in this district would typically be to break even in Norfolk city and on the eastern shore, winning Mathews and Va Beach and winning the election. Even so, it looks like the likely dem candidate will be 100th district Delegate Lynwood Lewis.
Since he represents the eastern shore and is from Accomack, it is very likely that he will probably win that area by a pretty good margin (he won 60-40 in 2003). Mathews and Va Beach may be able to cut into that margin some, but the GOP candidate still has to win Norfolk by a decent margin to carry the district.
Bearing Drift is reporting that Pamela Brown of the Norfolk Republican Women would be the likely GOP candidate if this seat came open. I know nothing about her, but the GOP will need to run someone from Norfolk to win this race.
As NLS points out, alot would ride on this race. Since there are 3 vunerable GOPs in NOVA and no other seemingly competitive seats on either side, this race would hold the magic 4th seat the dems need to win in order to regain the Senate majority.
Just remember that we have had several other appointment rumors that have not come to fruition, so maybe we shouldn't jump the gun yet :)
UPDATE: Vivian Page says this isn't going to happen. Time will tell I guess.