Possible Appointment
NLS is reporting that Sen. Nick Rerras may be appointed to a position in the Kaine administration thereby resulting in a special election in his 6th Senatorial district.
The district is made up of Accomack, Mathews, and Northampton Counties as well as parts of Norfolk and Va Beach.
The 2005 breakdown looks like this:
Kaine won 53.9%-46.1%
Bolling won 51.6%-48.4%
McDonnell won 52.1%-47.9%
This district certainly has the makings of an interesting race. The strategy of this district also makes it even more interesting. Mathews and (usually) Accomack are GOP strongholds whereas Northampton is a dem stronghold. The Va Beach section is GOP, but it only 2 precincts so it has very little effect. Nofolk commands around half of the district, and is a tossup section of the city (Kaine won it 55-45, Bolling won 50.1-49.9 and McDonnell won 51-49).
The basic GOP strategy in this district would typically be to break even in Norfolk city and on the eastern shore, winning Mathews and Va Beach and winning the election. Even so, it looks like the likely dem candidate will be 100th district Delegate Lynwood Lewis.
Since he represents the eastern shore and is from Accomack, it is very likely that he will probably win that area by a pretty good margin (he won 60-40 in 2003). Mathews and Va Beach may be able to cut into that margin some, but the GOP candidate still has to win Norfolk by a decent margin to carry the district.
Bearing Drift is reporting that Pamela Brown of the Norfolk Republican Women would be the likely GOP candidate if this seat came open. I know nothing about her, but the GOP will need to run someone from Norfolk to win this race.
As NLS points out, alot would ride on this race. Since there are 3 vunerable GOPs in NOVA and no other seemingly competitive seats on either side, this race would hold the magic 4th seat the dems need to win in order to regain the Senate majority.
Just remember that we have had several other appointment rumors that have not come to fruition, so maybe we shouldn't jump the gun yet :)
UPDATE: Vivian Page says this isn't going to happen. Time will tell I guess.
The district is made up of Accomack, Mathews, and Northampton Counties as well as parts of Norfolk and Va Beach.
The 2005 breakdown looks like this:
Kaine won 53.9%-46.1%
Bolling won 51.6%-48.4%
McDonnell won 52.1%-47.9%
This district certainly has the makings of an interesting race. The strategy of this district also makes it even more interesting. Mathews and (usually) Accomack are GOP strongholds whereas Northampton is a dem stronghold. The Va Beach section is GOP, but it only 2 precincts so it has very little effect. Nofolk commands around half of the district, and is a tossup section of the city (Kaine won it 55-45, Bolling won 50.1-49.9 and McDonnell won 51-49).
The basic GOP strategy in this district would typically be to break even in Norfolk city and on the eastern shore, winning Mathews and Va Beach and winning the election. Even so, it looks like the likely dem candidate will be 100th district Delegate Lynwood Lewis.
Since he represents the eastern shore and is from Accomack, it is very likely that he will probably win that area by a pretty good margin (he won 60-40 in 2003). Mathews and Va Beach may be able to cut into that margin some, but the GOP candidate still has to win Norfolk by a decent margin to carry the district.
Bearing Drift is reporting that Pamela Brown of the Norfolk Republican Women would be the likely GOP candidate if this seat came open. I know nothing about her, but the GOP will need to run someone from Norfolk to win this race.
As NLS points out, alot would ride on this race. Since there are 3 vunerable GOPs in NOVA and no other seemingly competitive seats on either side, this race would hold the magic 4th seat the dems need to win in order to regain the Senate majority.
Just remember that we have had several other appointment rumors that have not come to fruition, so maybe we shouldn't jump the gun yet :)
UPDATE: Vivian Page says this isn't going to happen. Time will tell I guess.
posted by GOPHokie @ 8:44 AM
4 Comments:
At 6/07/2006 11:04 AM,
Anonymous said…
Good analysis Hokie. This the kind of district Democrats have shown recently that they can win. Republicans have had a hard time in swing open seat districts.
Lynwood Lewis will win this seat. He will clean up the eastern shore, and carry the precincts that are in the Ocean View district of Paula Miller who you didn't mention. The only areas where he is vulnerable are VB and Mathews.
At 6/07/2006 11:24 AM,
GOPHokie said…
Good point anon but Lewis is running, not Miller.
Just because Miller is popular (be it only 50% in 2005), she wont be on the ballot.
The GOP's only chance is still in Norfolk based on Lewis running.
Contrarily, if Miller runs; the GOP key will be the eastern shore.
At 6/07/2006 11:29 AM,
Anonymous said…
You're right but the Ocean View area has leaned to the Dems over the last few election cycles. This is where Kaine, Warner, and Miller can come in and help Lewis. Plus Lewis represents part of Ocean View which is in the 6th, albeit one precinct. Also Bob Bloxom would campaign for Lewis on the shore. I traveled there a lot in 05 and Lewis owns the shore politically.
I just think a talented well-accomplished Lynwood Lewis will defeat a Pamela Brown who has never ran for political office. This was a shrewd move by Kaine.
At 6/07/2006 10:20 PM,
GOPHokie said…
Bottom line is the GOP needs a strong Norfolk candidate.
I dont think we have anyone that fits the bill.
I guess we should just start getting a candidate for the 100th.
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