Frank Wolf
I saw this morning that the Washington Post has endorsed Frank Wolf in the race for the 10th congressional district. I would imagine this should help him in this year's race, since the Post doesn't typically endorse GOPs and that is the main paper in NOVA.
Even so, it could have longer term effects. There are many GOPs in the 10th district who are getting aggravated by Wolf. First it was his support for 10th district chairman Jim Rich over challenger Heidi Stirrup in the district chairman's race. Then he voted against the earmarking bill. He has also supported the "Hallowed Ground" intiative that is opposed by alot of people over property rights issues. There are rumors that he will draw a primary challenger next time around if things don't change. This Post endorsement could also be used against him if someone decides to challenge him (remember Sean Connaughton's Post endorsement?).
This all fuels questions as to whether he will run at all in 2008. It looks as though he has a tough race this year, and with the prospects of a primary challenger and a strong general election challenger in '08; he may decide its time to quit. After all, the prospects of a dem controlled House look more likely as each day passes. Who wants to sit around as a 26 year incumbent in the minority party?
My guess is he will retire in 2008 if the GOP loses the House. If we manage to hold it, Wolf may be able to secure a chairmanship (possibily Appropriations?) with his senior status and then he would probably wait around for another term or so.
One other thing to keep in mind is that it would behove the GOP to try and replace Wolf in a presidential year. The 10th district, while it has seen changes at the state level, is still a relatively solid district in presidential years (at least through 2008). This was strengthed even more with Warner dropping out of the race for president. Now it still seems unlikely Virginia will go blue in 2008.
Even so, it could have longer term effects. There are many GOPs in the 10th district who are getting aggravated by Wolf. First it was his support for 10th district chairman Jim Rich over challenger Heidi Stirrup in the district chairman's race. Then he voted against the earmarking bill. He has also supported the "Hallowed Ground" intiative that is opposed by alot of people over property rights issues. There are rumors that he will draw a primary challenger next time around if things don't change. This Post endorsement could also be used against him if someone decides to challenge him (remember Sean Connaughton's Post endorsement?).
This all fuels questions as to whether he will run at all in 2008. It looks as though he has a tough race this year, and with the prospects of a primary challenger and a strong general election challenger in '08; he may decide its time to quit. After all, the prospects of a dem controlled House look more likely as each day passes. Who wants to sit around as a 26 year incumbent in the minority party?
My guess is he will retire in 2008 if the GOP loses the House. If we manage to hold it, Wolf may be able to secure a chairmanship (possibily Appropriations?) with his senior status and then he would probably wait around for another term or so.
One other thing to keep in mind is that it would behove the GOP to try and replace Wolf in a presidential year. The 10th district, while it has seen changes at the state level, is still a relatively solid district in presidential years (at least through 2008). This was strengthed even more with Warner dropping out of the race for president. Now it still seems unlikely Virginia will go blue in 2008.
posted by GOPHokie @ 12:38 PM
9 Comments:
At 10/14/2006 9:34 PM,
Anonymous said…
Bubba-
1. Turn on the editing option for your blog.
2. Frank Wolf will not be defeated in 2006. He will not be primaried in 2008.
3. If you are talking retirement, I think you need to look a little farther to 2012. He will have had 30 years in congress, and his district will be redrawn...and I am betting he loses Frederick County and maybe Clarke County, which have been solidly GOP.
2012 is the year he steps down.
At 10/14/2006 10:46 PM,
Anonymous said…
I pretty much agree with your assessment. I don't know about a 2008 primary challenge but I think that if Wolf survives this cycle and the Democrats win the House majority, he'll either retire or lose re-election in the 2008 general.
I can't imagine him wanting to stick around if the GOP lose the majority, especially if he has a tough re-election to look forward to. But he may hang around and lazily fund-raise and campaign, giving Dems an opening to pick up the seat.
At 10/15/2006 2:11 AM,
Anonymous said…
I do not see any good primary opponents to Wolf in 2008 (no need). He will win re-election as long as he wants to keep running. Not sure about re-districting, but the repub state leg (hopefully!!) would be silly to drop the west end of his district, the valley votes repub. If the district moves east then it becomes more and more difficult to hold for the GOP. No current general assembly members should challenge him. Maybe Stirrup from PW or Holtzman who has family name recognition out here (Holtzman Oil) and some incredible fundraising. If she is a state senator (walk in the park race against Potts) she may be a challenger, but I think any good challenge would come from Fairfax or the east.
Whose from Fairfax in the 10th?
At 10/15/2006 10:54 AM,
GOPHokie said…
Ken Cuccinelli is from Fairfax in the 10th.
Even so, I've heard he wants to run for U.S. Senate in 2008.
At 10/15/2006 10:19 PM,
Anonymous said…
Anybody going to the Feder/Wolf debate on Tuesday night?
At 10/16/2006 8:00 AM,
Anonymous said…
Follow up...
1. Cuccinelli has to get by his reelection campaign in 2007 before he should be worrying about the senate in 2008...
2. Where is this lazily campagining thing coming from? All I see from Feder is press releases and a fancy web site. Shoot, Wolf has outsigned her in mcLean (at least as of middle of last week), and has turned outmore folks at any number of 10th district parades and other public events. The 10th won't easily go democrat in its current incarnation...
At 10/16/2006 8:14 AM,
Anonymous said…
Are you sure Cuccinelli is in the 10th? I ask as so much of his senate district is in the 11th...
At 10/16/2006 9:06 AM,
GOPHokie said…
9:00, I agree wholeheartedly on the 07 race for Cooch. As to the lazy campaign, I think the feeling is that the Wolf were unconcerned and felt like they had this in the bag before it started. Thats just my observations though.
9:14; Cooch is from Centreville, which is in the 10th.
You are correct though, alot of the eastern part of the district is in the 11th.
At 10/17/2006 6:41 AM,
Bwana said…
Watching the 10th from my home in the 11th, and having formerly lived in the 10th, it seems a couple of comments are in line:
1. I think the real proof of the Wolf campaign is that the folks who are talking them down either don't live in the district or have shown themselves to be clear Feder supporters. The former don't have the day to day contact to make a call, and the latter have every reason to try to paint Wolf as being lackadaisical, leaving their observations more than a little tainted.
2. Brimur has it exactly wrong above. I have heard Frank Wolf say that being a Congressman is his dream job. You don't give up the job you wanted your entire life just because your party goes into the minority. Remember, the House GOP were in the minority for the first half of Wolf's career.
3. The redistricting call above is probably closer to the truth. Wolf lives in the fairfax county portion of the 10th, which puts him sort of at the edge. In 2012 he will be past 70, will have 30 years on capital hill, and will have to take on a newly reapportioned district which may well lose him the large GOP constituencies in PWCo/Manassas/MP/Frederick County/Winchester, etc...will he want to take on that challenge?
Post a Comment
<< Home