Congressional Indicators
On election night, Virginia will be one of the first states to close the polls (7 PM here, 8 or later most everywhere else). For this reason, many people will be looking to our races for guidance on how the night will go for each party.
The Senate race is pretty cut and dried since an Allen victory would almost guarantee that the GOP holds the Senate.
The race we have that could dictate Congressional outcomes is the 2nd district. A 58% Bush district and won by Drake with 55% in 2004; the numbers here could give us some insight into what will happen the rest of the night.
First and foremost, I think if Drake loses it is likely the GOP will lose the bulk of the competitive races. Her losing, even against a great candidate, would probably signal a "wave".
Predicting the mrgins if she wins is much tougher. The latest poll shows her with a 51-43 lead, but another recent poll actually has her trailing. This would indicate she will have a hard time getting more than her previous 55%, and maybe a hard time even getting to 52%.
I think if she can break 55%, it will be a major signal that things may go much better for the GOP than expected. I can't promise they will hold the majority if she breaks that number, but the democratic margins will probably be low. For the purposes of this analysis, we will assume if she gets 55% the GOP will lose 15 seats giving the dems 218. For every % point Drake is under 55, I think the dems probably gain 3-5 additional seats. So for instance, if Drake gets 52 then the dems will have 227-233 seats.
Obviously this is not an exact science by any stretch, but I think we will probably be able to pretty accurately tell how the election will go by Drake's margin.
The Senate race is pretty cut and dried since an Allen victory would almost guarantee that the GOP holds the Senate.
The race we have that could dictate Congressional outcomes is the 2nd district. A 58% Bush district and won by Drake with 55% in 2004; the numbers here could give us some insight into what will happen the rest of the night.
First and foremost, I think if Drake loses it is likely the GOP will lose the bulk of the competitive races. Her losing, even against a great candidate, would probably signal a "wave".
Predicting the mrgins if she wins is much tougher. The latest poll shows her with a 51-43 lead, but another recent poll actually has her trailing. This would indicate she will have a hard time getting more than her previous 55%, and maybe a hard time even getting to 52%.
I think if she can break 55%, it will be a major signal that things may go much better for the GOP than expected. I can't promise they will hold the majority if she breaks that number, but the democratic margins will probably be low. For the purposes of this analysis, we will assume if she gets 55% the GOP will lose 15 seats giving the dems 218. For every % point Drake is under 55, I think the dems probably gain 3-5 additional seats. So for instance, if Drake gets 52 then the dems will have 227-233 seats.
Obviously this is not an exact science by any stretch, but I think we will probably be able to pretty accurately tell how the election will go by Drake's margin.
posted by GOPHokie @ 12:54 PM
2 Comments:
At 11/05/2006 8:11 PM,
Anonymous said…
While I'm cheering for a Kellam victory, I'll predict a 4 point victory for Drake, and 20-25 seats for the Dems in total.
At 11/07/2006 10:56 PM,
Anonymous said…
Well, they're calling it for Democrat Senator Menendez over GOP Tom Keane, Jr. Keane could have won but his remarks about conservatives and the so-called Christian Right kept some voters home.
Sen. Santorum lost to the empty-suit Democrat Casey.
I'll tell you one thing, if conservatives don't get their act together, in 2008 the RINOs will be running things during the election cycle. We need a stauncg conservative who's a Beltway outsider -- someone like John Cox who's already declared his candidacy as did Duncan Hunter. But Hunter shows he's a big spender as a congressman from Texas, so he's an insider.
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