Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Coattails

In the upoming elections, everyone is looking at statewide races and HOD races and trying to figure out what effects they will have on each other.
The conventional wisdom seems to be that the statewide ticket will drive turnout and tip HOD races toward a district's political leanings. But what if it works the opposite way?
The best example of this is in the 26th district. Regardless of whether you think Lohr or Fulk will win, everyone should agree Fulk will get at least 45%, which is much higher than what Kaine will perceivably get. Could house candidates drive up votes for the statewide ticket? I am doubting this happens, but I want to know what you folks think.
Will the statwide tickets drive turnout up, or will the house candidates?

10 Comments:

  • At 9/01/2005 4:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Has anyone noticed how there has been little to no mention of the National Guard regarding the disaster in the gulf states? Could it be that the Guard is simply not available to help in domestic crisis? Where are they? At war, that's where. This situation points out how our ability to respond in time of national emergency has been destroyed. Dumb, really dumb. And now those poor people in the southern U.S. are suffering and dying. What ever happened to taking care of America first? I will have to really think before I vote republican again.

     
  • At 9/01/2005 6:24 PM, Blogger republitarian said…

    yesterday an additional 10,000 guard troops were sent. Just because you didn't hear it didn't mean it didn't happen.

     
  • At 9/01/2005 8:02 PM, Blogger republitarian said…

    Sorry...there I go again being insensitive.

     
  • At 9/01/2005 8:26 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Well anon, let me know what HOD district you live in, I'll let you know who the Libertarian candidate is (of it has one).
    The Republicans and the Democrats supported the war. The Libertarians did not.
    Also, I don't know how much help the national guard can be when New Orleans is 80% under water.

     
  • At 9/01/2005 11:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    republitarian,
    where did you get your information? Nothing about it in any news I've seen. I've not even seen a mention of troops, much less 10,000. help me out here. I hope I'm wrong!
    gophokie,
    what in the hell difference does it make what hod district i live in? what are you talking about? by God they could be keeping control over looters, they could be airlifting water in to people who have been stranded on overpasses for days in 100 degree temps. they could be moving people to safer conditions and locations. all of the things that the national guard has done in the past. except they aren't available now. republitarian, show me where there are 10,000 troops available to help. you made the claim, back it up...

     
  • At 9/01/2005 11:44 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    well I guess no one has any opinions on the coattails idea.
    I will try to have a new post tomorrow.

     
  • At 9/01/2005 11:53 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    By the way anon, 12,000 national guardsmen are on the way
    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/01/national/nationalspecial/01cnd-storm.html?ei=5065&en=bf6ce6fb2ad820f8&ex=1126238400&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print.

     
  • At 9/02/2005 6:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    According to AP article this am there are 300 Guard troops "fresh from Iraq" now in place. The reason that police and public safety personnel are being brought in from around the entire country is because we no longer have the capacity to respond like we did before Iraq. This is quite a reality check for our country. How tragic this is for Americans along the entire gulf coast.

     
  • At 9/08/2005 10:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I have one. Fulk got 45% in 2003, actually something like 45.3%. In all but one district, his race was the top vote getter, ahead of BOTH the Senate and the Sheriff's races. So the House race drove turnout, but the important point is that voters came out to vote in the HD26 race but did not vote in the upballot races. Of course, there was not a Gubernatorial or other statewide race on the top of the ticket. No Jerry Kilgore to bring out the hard core voters.

     
  • At 9/08/2005 9:37 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Yea, the point I am making is will a race such as the 26th cause Kaine to garner higher than expected numbers, or will Kilgore get expected numbers and Fulk just get alot of Kilgore voters.

    The reason I bring this up is that the state dems will be much more unlikely to throw their whole weight behind Fulk b/c it will ineviably hurt them in the statewide races, if he doesn't have a coattail effect. Conversely, if they think he will have a coattail effect, they may throw all their weight behind it.

     

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