Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Monday, August 29, 2005

The Race for the 6th

Since I am now in Southwest Virginia for awhile, I will try to focus on politics down here also.
Anne Crockett-Stark (R) is running against incumbent Benny Keister (D) in the 6th district HOD seat. In the 2003 election, Keister won by only 49 votes in a district with 38% turnout. Keister outspent Morgan Morris Jr $168k to $55k, as shown on VPAP. 3 Times as much money and he only won by 49 votes!
Many in Republican circles feel we have a great chance of a pickup here. One has even predicted that Annie B. will win by at least 4 percentage points. Not Larry Sabato has it pegged as the 4th hottest race (behind our favorite 26th district which is 3rd)
Here are the results from the 2003 election. Morris won 3 of the 5 localities in the district (it is made up of Bland, and parts of Pulaski, Giles, Wythe and Tazwell counties).
Even in the 2001 election, the Republican carried the same 3 localities, but the GOP candidate lost by a larger margin.

The big questions here are:
Will the higher turnout drive Annie B. to victory?
Can she keep close with money to keep it competitve?
Since Kilgore should run strong in SW Va, I think turnout should favor Annie B. As of right now, she is trailing Keister by $500 in cash on hand. We will see what the report shows on the 15th.

My take, we pickup this seat. The RPV is fully behind it, Annie B. is energetic about running and Keister seems to be vulnerable. All those things, plus a governors race that should turn up GOP turnout in SW Va, spells victory on election day.

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