Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

The Race for the 10th

Another seemingly competitve race here in SWVa is the 10th district HOD seat. David Young is attempting to unseat the 12 year incumbent Ward Armstrong. This district is made up of Patrick County, and parts of Carroll, Henry, and Martinsville.
This race is a little harder to get a hande on. Armstrong was not opposed in 2003, and in 2001 he won by 6%.
Young certainly has an uphill battle. Armstrong has a $188k-4k COH lead over Young at this point. I can't see Young ever making up the difference there. Also, Armstrong is a 12 year incumbent. I don't know any reasons why people would be upset with him, so that favors Armstrong.
One other thing I can tell you is that Republicans are not nearly as optimistic here, which will make fundraising,etc. tougher for David Young. Young doesn't even have a website up yet, thats another point for Armstrong.
Young's only hope is the GOP slant of the district. Carroll has long been a Republican stronghold and Patrick County is one of only 2 localities that Kevin Triplett carried in his 9th district challange last year against Rick Boucher. Henry County usually leans more democratic and the 2 Martinsville precincts in this district are the 2 most Democratic in the city (Bush got 4% in these).
Folks, I see no way we win this seat. Money, incumbency and a lack of confidence will spell defeat for David Young. Unless Armstrong screws up big time, the dems will hold this seat.

2 Comments:

  • At 8/31/2005 11:23 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said…

    Young's other hope is with Patrick and Carroll voting strong for him he would hard to beat. Martinsville precincts are Democratic but small.

     
  • At 9/01/2005 8:28 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Exactly. The big question here is whether people are happy w/ armstrong. Its really hard to tell since he wasn't even opposed last time.
    Time will tell I guess.

     

Post a Comment

<< Home