Race in the 9th
The district makeup is simple, Franklin County runs the district. In 2003, over 70% of the votes hailed from Franklin. Floyd and Pittsylvania are heavily Republican, but don't command much power in the district, so their affect is minimal (they just save the GOPer if Franklin is weak).
Franklin County is Republican, but not as strongly as some counties in SW Va. Dudley did get 55% of the vote in 2003, so unless there are overriding concerns that I am not aware of, he should perform about the same as last time (Dudley is from Rocky Mount so Franklin is his home area). Dudley should have the demographic advantage here.
Dudley also has a money advantage, so far. Dudley has a 2-1 advantage ($94k-47k) in cash on hand. Dudley was outspent in 2003 $96k-73k and still won with 58% of the vote so money should not be a problem for him either.
I think Dudley is safe in this seat. Unless he makes a big screw up in the next few months, he should be fine. One note though, Republicans are not targeting this race, they believe it is safe. If Dudley is weaker than we think, Ferguson will have an advantage from that standpoint.