Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Race in the 9th

To round out my analysis of HOD races before the Sept. 15th filing deadline, lets take a look at the 9th district. Allen Dudley (R) is being challenged by Eric Ferguson (D).
The district makeup is simple, Franklin County runs the district. In 2003, over 70% of the votes hailed from Franklin. Floyd and Pittsylvania are heavily Republican, but don't command much power in the district, so their affect is minimal (they just save the GOPer if Franklin is weak).
Franklin County is Republican, but not as strongly as some counties in SW Va. Dudley did get 55% of the vote in 2003, so unless there are overriding concerns that I am not aware of, he should perform about the same as last time (Dudley is from Rocky Mount so Franklin is his home area). Dudley should have the demographic advantage here.
Dudley also has a money advantage, so far. Dudley has a 2-1 advantage ($94k-47k) in cash on hand. Dudley was outspent in 2003 $96k-73k and still won with 58% of the vote so money should not be a problem for him either.
I think Dudley is safe in this seat. Unless he makes a big screw up in the next few months, he should be fine. One note though, Republicans are not targeting this race, they believe it is safe. If Dudley is weaker than we think, Ferguson will have an advantage from that standpoint.

2 Comments:

  • At 9/07/2005 2:43 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said…

    Ferguson has nailed the language of his community in all his stuff. The more I see from him, the more I'm thinking this will get real close at the end. Working on a post on the 10th later today, after I publish an update on the comments made in the 6th.

     
  • At 9/07/2005 11:43 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Thanks for the comment NLS.
    You certainly are more up to date on these races than I am.

     

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