Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Opening in the 17th?

About a week ago NLS said Sen. Edd Houck might be appointed to the education post in the Kaine administration. Today, Chad Dotson has heard the same thing. If this is true, it gives the GOP a great chance to gain a seat in the State Senate. This is a very conservative area, stretching from Madison to Fredericksburg. Jay Hughes, the YR chair has been rumored to be running for the seat. Shaun Kenney, GOP chair of Spotsylvania would be another possible name. Of course Delegate Ed Scott could enter the race as well (and maybe even Mark Jarvis).
I would point out that Houck is 3rd in the Dem leadership in the Senate, so with Colgan widely expected to retire in '07, he may not want to give that power up. Time will tell.
Has anyone else heard if this rumor is true?

UPDATE: According to MR JMS; Chris Yakabouski, a supervisor (I am assuming from Spotsylvania County) is also going to throw his hat into the ring for the GOP nod for this seat. I also hear that Shaun Kenney does not live in the district. Perhaps he can come on here and clarify that.

UPDATE2: Shaun Kenney has not heard anything definite about this seat opening up. Just thought I would let everyone know that the GOP chairman of 1/3 of the district has heard nothing.

posted by GOPHokie @ 4:09 PM  

14 Comments:

  • At 12/13/2005 6:28 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Who is he? I haven't heard his name.

     

  • At 12/13/2005 7:23 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    thanks, I saw that

     

  • At 12/13/2005 9:33 PM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said…

    If I so desired, yes I could run in the 17th.

    However, everything seems rather silly until we know for certain.

    Check out my post for some brief thoughts. I talked to Jay about two weeks ago, Chris about one week ago, so I have a pretty good idea of what's on their minds.

    If Houck were really on the move, the Dems would be getting their DH warmed up. I have heard some noise, but nothing substantive (yet).

     

  • At 12/13/2005 9:41 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Thanks for the insight Shaun. I agree that we are doing probably a little too much speculation, but we need to make sure we have our ducks in a row if the seat comes open.
    I have heard very convincing reasons why Houck may leave this seat though, so I am under the impression it is very probable.

     

  • At 12/14/2005 12:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    There is no way the state GOP would let Jarvis be the candidate. He got crushed by almost a 2:1 margin in the primary against Ed Scott, raised the least amount of money of all the VCAP candidates, and was too extreme even for a Republican primary, much less a general election. Of all the poor candidates VCAP recruited, Jarvis was quite possibly the worst.

     

  • At 12/14/2005 1:58 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Good point. I never said the RPV would let Jarvis run, but it would not surprise me if he tried to get the nod.

     

  • At 12/14/2005 5:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Del Scott would have a hard time unless he resigned his House seat- you can't raise money as a sitting delegate while in session. If Houck was appointed soon, the election would be sometime during mid-session I assume. Just something to keep in mind.

     

  • At 12/14/2005 5:21 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I would imagine the special election would be before session started, probably the day before.
    You can bet Gov. Kaine/Warner will do whatever is necessary to give the dems the best chance of defending this seat.

     

  • At 12/14/2005 10:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Why would Kaine give up a close ally in the Senate like Houck? Houck and Kaine see eye to eye on many issues with Houck probably playing a key role in getting many of Kaine's proposals through.

     

  • At 12/15/2005 12:06 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    B/c Houck wants that education post to jack up his VRS pension. He can probably more than double it with a job like this one.
    He can take this job for 3-4 years then retire with a very nice pension (I believe it is half of your average highest 3 years of salary).

     

  • At 12/15/2005 1:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    What does Kaine care if he has one more supporter in the Senate? He already has most of the Republicans.

     

  • At 12/15/2005 2:11 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    Exactly, thats the plan. The Senate is already favorable toward the administration.
    Plus, the chance of a retaking of the majority in '07 is basically non-existent. The dems would have to sweep the 4 GOP NOVA seats (O'Brien, Devolites-Davis, Cuccinelli and Mims) and still find one more down state to gain the majority. Plus they still have to defend the 17th anyway, and the open seat Colgan is widely expected to cause.
    Not gonna happen

     

  • At 12/15/2005 4:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Edd Houck is a bigger benefit to Kaine in the Senate than as Secretary of Education.

    He has run 6 times and no Republican has come close to beating him. In 2007, there is not a Republican in the 17th that can beat him.

     

  • At 12/15/2005 5:16 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    I don't think anyone disagrees with that assessment. Even so, Edd Houck might want the job. At some point, people should be rewarded for their alliegiance to the party. It still remains to be seen if he will get his reward this time around.

     

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