Fairfax 100k Strategy
First off is NOVA: in addition to the loss in Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria will probably put us another 55,000 votes behind. Manassas and the Park will offset Falls Church and Fairfax City, so all that is left is Loudoun and Prince William Counties. This is the first big question. If Allen loses Fairfax this bad, we will assume he will do poorly in these areas too, which will result in an additional 10,000 vote deficit. This is the best case scenario for Webb. That means Allen is down 165,000 votes coming out of NOVA.
Next is the Exurbs and the Shenandoah Valley. This is the swath from Fauquier, Stafford and Spotsylvania through Winchester, Harrisonburg and Roanoke. These are the areas Allen will need big numbers, probably rivaling Bush's margins. Even so, the biggest margin he can hope to get from this area is about 100,000 so he will need the rest from the 5th and 9th congressional districts.
If Allen gets 59% in the 9th and 54% in the 5th, that will get him the remaining 65,000 margin and we will be back to 0. Anything below this would probably spell defeat.
The next area is Richmond. Hanover, Henrico and Chesterfield have to not only offset Richmond City; but actually show a vote gain going into Tidewater. If Allen can get good numbers he will be up around 20,000 in Richmond Metro.
Tidewater is last. Allen will need to win Chesapeake and Virginia Beach big and keep Newport News close to offset losses in Norfolk, Portsmouth and Hampton. If he gets Bush '04 margins he will be down around 10,000 but a more likely scenario is a deficit of 20,000.
That has eliminated all the democratic strongholds for the most part, so the remaining areas will show a marginal Allen lead. That marginal lead will be the margin of victory if all goes like I have proposed.
As you can see, the biggest keys for Allen are winning the Valley big, winning Henrico County and winning the traditional suburban GOP strongholds of Chesapeake, Virginia Beach and hopefully Prince William and Loudoun. If he can do that, even a blowout in the Democratic strongholds and Fairfax County will not derail his re-election. As to whether it will happen; only time will tell.