Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Monday, June 26, 2006

Fairfax 100k Strategy

Alluding to my last post, I have designed a strategy that Allen would need in order to win the election if he lost Fairfax County by 100,000 votes. Instead of running though each and every locality, I am going to break up the state into who needs to offset who. I am assuming about a 58% turnout statewide.

First off is NOVA: in addition to the loss in Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria will probably put us another 55,000 votes behind. Manassas and the Park will offset Falls Church and Fairfax City, so all that is left is Loudoun and Prince William Counties. This is the first big question. If Allen loses Fairfax this bad, we will assume he will do poorly in these areas too, which will result in an additional 10,000 vote deficit. This is the best case scenario for Webb. That means Allen is down 165,000 votes coming out of NOVA.

Next is the Exurbs and the Shenandoah Valley. This is the swath from Fauquier, Stafford and Spotsylvania through Winchester, Harrisonburg and Roanoke. These are the areas Allen will need big numbers, probably rivaling Bush's margins. Even so, the biggest margin he can hope to get from this area is about 100,000 so he will need the rest from the 5th and 9th congressional districts.

If Allen gets 59% in the 9th and 54% in the 5th, that will get him the remaining 65,000 margin and we will be back to 0. Anything below this would probably spell defeat.

The next area is Richmond. Hanover, Henrico and Chesterfield have to not only offset Richmond City; but actually show a vote gain going into Tidewater. If Allen can get good numbers he will be up around 20,000 in Richmond Metro.

Tidewater is last. Allen will need to win Chesapeake and Virginia Beach big and keep Newport News close to offset losses in Norfolk, Portsmouth and Hampton. If he gets Bush '04 margins he will be down around 10,000 but a more likely scenario is a deficit of 20,000.

That has eliminated all the democratic strongholds for the most part, so the remaining areas will show a marginal Allen lead. That marginal lead will be the margin of victory if all goes like I have proposed.

As you can see, the biggest keys for Allen are winning the Valley big, winning Henrico County and winning the traditional suburban GOP strongholds of Chesapeake, Virginia Beach and hopefully Prince William and Loudoun. If he can do that, even a blowout in the Democratic strongholds and Fairfax County will not derail his re-election. As to whether it will happen; only time will tell.

5 Comments:

  • At 6/26/2006 10:18 AM, Anonymous winconservative said…

    Excellent analysis, from what I have seen so far the Valley and exurbs will greatly exceed the numbers they posted in the 05 election. For the most part all stripes up Republicans are embracing Allen for various reasons, much unlike last years election. I also think Congressman Wolf will help Allen in the areas of Western Fairfax and Loudon. I cannot see Loudon and Prince William falling again with a party uniting under a candidate like Sen. Allen. So far Sen. Allen seems to be concentrating on the issues that people in NOVA care about and avoiding those issues that polarize the electorate.

     
  • At 6/26/2006 11:43 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    The thing to look at is the downticket races.
    Bolling and McDonnell both got much higher numbers in the exurbs than Kilgore did, and also performed much better in Richmond Metro and Tidewater.
    Fairfax County and to some extent Loudoun were the 2 main areas where the entire ticket had a weak showing.

     
  • At 6/28/2006 8:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    So does this scenario equate to about a 51-49 Allen win? That's pretty bad for an incumbant, this to me sounds like Allen should be able to hold on to his Senate seat, but I would think a squeaker like this over a neophyte would pretty much doom his Presidential bid.

     
  • At 6/28/2006 10:45 AM, Blogger GOPHokie said…

    You are correct, this scenario is 51-49.
    Remember though, this is almost a best case scenario for Webb (the Fairfax number anyway).

     
  • At 6/28/2006 5:23 PM, Blogger Virginia's_Right_Stuff said…

    Looks like a very well-thought out strategy.

     

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