Which Way Is Up?
Thanks to NLS for pointing out the new SurveyUSA poll that shows Allen leading 56-37. This certainly is in stark contrast to the Zogby poll showing the race at 49-44 or even the Rasmussen poll showing 51-41. The crosstabs are even more interesting.
First, they show Allen garnering 26% of the African-American vote. NLS pointed out that the AA community is the one area Allen outperformed Bush in 2000, and also a voting block who may go against Webb due to his affirmative action stances, etc (the Paul Gillis radio ad also must be considered). I am still skeptical about Allen's strength here, but time will tell.
Second, Allen is at a tie in NOVA 46-46. This is interesting since that would require Allen to win Fairfax County (depending on what "Northeast" is defined as). This comes soon after proposals of a historic 100,000 vote margin for Webb in the county this year. This also would signal NOVA has not gone as far left as some think. Here too, I am skeptical that things are this good. Kilgore was tied in NOVA early on as well.
Third, it shows Allen leading southeast 62-31. Southeast Virginia includes Tidewater, which is where I fear Allen could have his biggest struggle. Webb's military credentials should allow him to make inroads in the military community here, but this poll shows the exact opposite. Also, if Allen carries this area by a big margin it will probably doom Phil Kellam's chances of knocking off Thelma Drake.
All in all, I hope Allen does have a commanding lead like this. Even so, I am concerned that this poll could do what I have feared all along; give Allen supporters a false sense of security. Allen's biggest threat right now is that if people think he has nothing to worry about, they won't go vote. The strongest congressional district for Allen, the 6th, has no congressional challenger so there is nothing else on the ballot (other than the marriage amendment). Other strong districts like the 7th have seemingly token opposition. This could be the downfall of Allen if his supporters think the race is in the bag. Polls like this don't help with that problem.
Of course, if this poll is right and the numbers hold, it won't matter.
First, they show Allen garnering 26% of the African-American vote. NLS pointed out that the AA community is the one area Allen outperformed Bush in 2000, and also a voting block who may go against Webb due to his affirmative action stances, etc (the Paul Gillis radio ad also must be considered). I am still skeptical about Allen's strength here, but time will tell.
Second, Allen is at a tie in NOVA 46-46. This is interesting since that would require Allen to win Fairfax County (depending on what "Northeast" is defined as). This comes soon after proposals of a historic 100,000 vote margin for Webb in the county this year. This also would signal NOVA has not gone as far left as some think. Here too, I am skeptical that things are this good. Kilgore was tied in NOVA early on as well.
Third, it shows Allen leading southeast 62-31. Southeast Virginia includes Tidewater, which is where I fear Allen could have his biggest struggle. Webb's military credentials should allow him to make inroads in the military community here, but this poll shows the exact opposite. Also, if Allen carries this area by a big margin it will probably doom Phil Kellam's chances of knocking off Thelma Drake.
All in all, I hope Allen does have a commanding lead like this. Even so, I am concerned that this poll could do what I have feared all along; give Allen supporters a false sense of security. Allen's biggest threat right now is that if people think he has nothing to worry about, they won't go vote. The strongest congressional district for Allen, the 6th, has no congressional challenger so there is nothing else on the ballot (other than the marriage amendment). Other strong districts like the 7th have seemingly token opposition. This could be the downfall of Allen if his supporters think the race is in the bag. Polls like this don't help with that problem.
Of course, if this poll is right and the numbers hold, it won't matter.
posted by GOPHokie @ 11:58 PM
7 Comments:
At 6/29/2006 11:04 AM,
zen said…
good analysis...do you think the Allen camp is worried? or if you prefer concerned?
At 6/29/2006 11:12 AM,
GOPHokie said…
I think they are protecting themselves. They have plenty of money so they might as well hit the TV waves early.
I have no idea what their internals show, so that would probably be the best indication.
Most of the campaign people I know are cautiously optimistic so far.
At 6/29/2006 12:39 PM,
zen said…
What do you see as Allen's biggest vulnerability?
At 6/29/2006 12:46 PM,
GOPHokie said…
Bush approval rating (and general bad GOP sentiment) and Webb's military credentials.
Also, if people think this race is in the bag that will be Allen's biggest disadvantage.
At 6/29/2006 1:10 PM,
zen said…
Agreed, your honesty is soooo refreshing. Thanks.
Do you not consider Allen's personality the least bit of a weight? I know life-long, stunch Republicans that find Allen to be arrogant, and fake...this has got to be a factor in considering a challenging race as this is. It has to be more about "at least he's better than his opponent." Which is not much of an endorsement ever.
At 6/29/2006 5:15 PM,
GOPHokie said…
Well I personally have never seen that, but since Allen won't ever meet 80% of the people voting I doubt it will make a huge difference. That is even worse these days since everyone mobs him since he might run for president.
If it makes a difference did it would have in 1993 and 2000 too I would think.
I also don't know what kinda person Webb comes off as.
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