Which Way Is Up?
First, they show Allen garnering 26% of the African-American vote. NLS pointed out that the AA community is the one area Allen outperformed Bush in 2000, and also a voting block who may go against Webb due to his affirmative action stances, etc (the Paul Gillis radio ad also must be considered). I am still skeptical about Allen's strength here, but time will tell.
Second, Allen is at a tie in NOVA 46-46. This is interesting since that would require Allen to win Fairfax County (depending on what "Northeast" is defined as). This comes soon after proposals of a historic 100,000 vote margin for Webb in the county this year. This also would signal NOVA has not gone as far left as some think. Here too, I am skeptical that things are this good. Kilgore was tied in NOVA early on as well.
Third, it shows Allen leading southeast 62-31. Southeast Virginia includes Tidewater, which is where I fear Allen could have his biggest struggle. Webb's military credentials should allow him to make inroads in the military community here, but this poll shows the exact opposite. Also, if Allen carries this area by a big margin it will probably doom Phil Kellam's chances of knocking off Thelma Drake.
All in all, I hope Allen does have a commanding lead like this. Even so, I am concerned that this poll could do what I have feared all along; give Allen supporters a false sense of security. Allen's biggest threat right now is that if people think he has nothing to worry about, they won't go vote. The strongest congressional district for Allen, the 6th, has no congressional challenger so there is nothing else on the ballot (other than the marriage amendment). Other strong districts like the 7th have seemingly token opposition. This could be the downfall of Allen if his supporters think the race is in the bag. Polls like this don't help with that problem.
Of course, if this poll is right and the numbers hold, it won't matter.