Rove and Bush Not Concerned?
The two things being cited for this feeling is the huge money advantage the GOP enjoys ($55 million to be exact) as well as the believed superior GOP GOTV operation.
Some would argue that money won't help the GOP b/c so much is due to the huge electoral disadvantage they face. Even so, the thing to remember is that largely the battle for the Senate and House reside in red states and districts.
Think about the Senate. The main battles are VA, NJ, OH, TN, and MO (RI, MT and PA are probably done for). 4 of those 5 are red states, giving the GOP a chance to reach out to their base. Its not like they are in states where they need to get large crossover votes, they just need the base.
Next comes the House. According to Larry Sabato, of the 50 competitive seats; 30 are in red states compared to 20 in blue states. Even more so than that, many of the blue state seats were won by Bush in 2004. Same theory applies here, they only need GOPs, not as much crossover.
The best thing money can do is reinforce your own voters. Certainly media can be effective in picking up swing voters, but its most effective when trying to convince your base to get out there and vote. The fact that the GOP has a huge money advantage and is fighting most battles in friendly territory, things may not turn out as bad as people think (at least I think that's how Rove & Co. view it).
GOTV is another advantage for the GOP in that they typically have a more localized team compared to the dems who do more out-of-state people. With battles all over the map this year, it will be tough for the dems to ship people from one state to another since they will need them at home. Another thing is that since a large number of the races are in GOP friendly territory, the GOP GOTV effort can focus on just general turnout increases, whereas the dems will need a targeted effort at their voters only. The big question in this area is how fired up the GOP base is as we near election day.
Just some food for thought, you guys are free to rip my analysis now.