Elephant Ears

This blog is dedicated to the political happenings in the Valley and Southwest Virginia. As the the name implies, this blog will have posts based on what is heard by this elephant's (GOPer's) ears. It is also a great treat to get while at the county fair or a carnival.

Friday, May 25, 2007

Family Foundation Ratings and the GOP Primaries

The new Virginia Family Foundation ratings are out and here are the ratings for the primaried GOP Senators:
Fred Quayle - 63
Walter Stosch - 73
Marty Williams - 75
Emmett Hanger - 86
Brandon Bell - 89

Before my analysis, I want to remind everyone that one of the VFF's survey votes was the tax vote; so obviously all these guys got docked for that one.

Quayle is very weak for a Republican (he was the second lowest GOP rating in front of Russ Potts). Could this be enough to turn the tide against him in his race?

Stosch's number is somewhat weak. Even so, he represents an area that is probably more business oriented rather than social issues. I doubt this will have a major impact here.

Williams had low number for a Republican; but his district, like Stosch's, is probably more business minded than social issues. The one problem he does face is that he is probably in more trouble than Stosch and this may be one more nail in his coffin.

Hanger's is probably the most interesting. He has a high number (the 7th highest in the Senate), but it still is below the 100s that his fellow delegates Cline, Landes and Saxman received. Look for the Sayre folks to use this in the last few days of the primary cycle as more ammunition for ousting Emmett. Even so, Emmett's only "non-family vote" other than the tax vote was on school choice; so we will see if thats enough to fire up the 24th's primary voters.

Bell is probably in one of the strongest positions with this rating since he has a high rating and his downticket delegates were close by (Fralin had a 100, but Griffith had a 95 and Nutter received an 89 as well). It appears it will be tough for Smith to make much hay out of this, since Bell's numbers look pretty solid here.

I expect other organizations to begin releasing their surveys and ratings soon, so perhaps there will be other effects in these races as well.

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