Primary Fallout
Due to some upsets and the results of the GOP primaries, we should take a look at where some of the races stand now that we know who the candidates are.
Stosch is unopposed, so he will win in a strongly Republican district.
Quayle has opposition, but he will be much stronger than Ramsey would have been. He should win this seat without too much problem.
Hanger will likely win, since its a strongly GOP district; and the libertarian I assume is pro-choice (which is pretty much the kiss of death in western Va).
Holtzman-Vogel should do well in the 27th, since the district is pretty strong GOP; but there could be a potential race if Tate's charges turn out to be false and she gets blamed for it. The dem seems to be weak here though, so she still might be ok (plus she will have massive fundraising ability).
Ralph Smith will have a race, even in a good Republican district; but ultimately he will probably win. More on this race later.
Trisha Stall is the big question mark. The 1st district is only marginally Republican, but there isn't the liability of being downticket this year. The dems appear to have a credible candidate, so there will be alot of money spent here. Stall will likely have a much tougher race than Williams would have had, but she can still win. This race has the potential to become one of the more competitive races this year.
I will do more in-depth analysis on each race as we get closer to the general election.
Stosch is unopposed, so he will win in a strongly Republican district.
Quayle has opposition, but he will be much stronger than Ramsey would have been. He should win this seat without too much problem.
Hanger will likely win, since its a strongly GOP district; and the libertarian I assume is pro-choice (which is pretty much the kiss of death in western Va).
Holtzman-Vogel should do well in the 27th, since the district is pretty strong GOP; but there could be a potential race if Tate's charges turn out to be false and she gets blamed for it. The dem seems to be weak here though, so she still might be ok (plus she will have massive fundraising ability).
Ralph Smith will have a race, even in a good Republican district; but ultimately he will probably win. More on this race later.
Trisha Stall is the big question mark. The 1st district is only marginally Republican, but there isn't the liability of being downticket this year. The dems appear to have a credible candidate, so there will be alot of money spent here. Stall will likely have a much tougher race than Williams would have had, but she can still win. This race has the potential to become one of the more competitive races this year.
I will do more in-depth analysis on each race as we get closer to the general election.
posted by GOPHokie @ 9:38 PM
6 Comments:
At 6/14/2007 4:07 PM,
Anonymous said…
I always support candidates who offer real solutions to the problems facing the Commonwealth. Most often, these candidates are Republican. However, all I saw from the primary was the same tired platitudes designed to push the Peoples' hot buttons.
I visited Stall's website and could not find any substantive bio information, nor any proposals for solutions. I found it amusing that she thinks that being a "concealed carry permit holder" counts as a qualification for the Senate. Jack "Quickdraw" Reid, formerly of the 72nd House District, who gained infamy for firing his pistol in the House office building, is probably the only one who agrees with her on this point.
I first got to know John Miller about thirty years ago when he was a TV reporter and I was a young volunteer working on G. William Whitehurst's campaign (2nd Cong. Dist). John Miller always comported himself with the bearing of a statesman and was well known as an honest man in the media who partisans from all parties could easily trust. I especially was impressed with his thoroughness and professionalism in dealing with citizens of every station in life. He was kind to everyone with whom I saw him converse.
John Miller would be a superb Senator in the finest traditions of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Once elected, Virginians of all political backgrounds can look forward to a leader who will provide well reasoned solutions to the real challenges that we all face. Virginia Republicans and Democrats used to be famous for how well they worked together in the House and Senate. Virginians deserve a return to an era of constructive cooperation by their Representatives. I am certain that John Miller can move the partisan factions forward together, in order to serve all of the citizens of the Commonwealth.
The Stall campaign seems to be locked into the same fear and despair mongering as the Bush Administration. All I see from Stall, so far, is more of the same old tricks to scare the voters. Her campaign reminds me of Jerry Kilgore's in many ways, all scare and no solutions.
In my opinion, the election of John Miller to the Virginia Senate will usher in an era of hope and optimism. His experience and demeanor will ensure that both Republicans and Democrats will be able to rely on his steady hand on the tiller of our State government for many happy years to come.
At 6/14/2007 4:44 PM,
Anonymous said…
The interesting question is how much did the democrats play in the 22nd district to push the nomination to Smith.
Roanoke Times reported the day after election that Equality Virginia sent email and phone calls into the district in support of Bell.
Bell says that a board member with Equality Virginia contacted him offering to contact voters on his behalf. To set the record straight, Bell supported the constitutional amendment.
This Equality Virginia board member, Molly McClintock, took it upon herself to do the voter contact.
http://www.equalityvirginia.org/site/pp.asp?c=dfIIITMIG&b=132619
The same Molly McClintock is a precinct capitan with the Montgomery County Democratic Committee.
http://www.mcdemocrats.org/organization.html
Was this a Dick Cranwell plot to stir up the conservatives against Bell? Did Crawell get other democrats to vote for Smith in othe ways....it sure looks that way?
At 6/14/2007 5:04 PM,
CraigOrn said…
Arin Sime actually labels himself as pro-life on his website. We'll see how this actually plays out, but there could be some strength there. The SWACers have already publically announced their support for Hanger, but "golden silence" is not unknown in the valley. If you see them saying "Yes, I support Hanger" and then doing nothing about it, then there's a chance that Sime may find himself at 30%. I don't think there's a chance he can win with the L label (he'd still probably only have an outside chance as a pure Indy) but he could give Hanger a decent scare.
As for Jill, if she holds the margins in Frederick and Fauquier, she should be fine. She could have a scare in Clarke, Loudon, and Winchester, where Warner did alright back in '01. But Warner's just a private citizen (albeit a high profile and wealthy one), so we'll see if he can actually sweep any of these marginal Dems into office.
At 6/26/2007 6:49 PM,
Steven Latimer said…
It's Time for Sime!
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